INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
NYLATYOBERLON
TUE · SEP 8, 2026
SEP 8
Today · 9:40 PM ETProjected — not officialNL East / NL West

Washington Nationals   vs   San Diego Padres Preview

September 8, 2026

Starting pitchers, lineup status, recent form, weather and current moneyline context at Petco Park.

9:40 PM ET · Petco ParkStats updated Sep 8, 2:01 PM ETLineups not confirmedLast update Sep 8, 1:45 PM ET
T-Score45
Washington Nationals
67–79 · 4th NL East · T-Score 45
–
–––
First pitch 9:40 PM ET
San Diego Padres
76–68 · 3rd NL West · T-Score 56
–
T-Score56
First pitch 9:40 PM ETWSH +160 · SD −189 · Total 8
WSH +160 · SD −189 · Total 8Last update Sep 8, 1:45 PM ET

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherPadresMize leads Cornelio in P-Score (64 vs –), WHIP and FIP.
Offense vs handNationalsWashington has produced the stronger offense against right-handed pitching.
BullpenPadresSan has allowed fewer runs from the bullpen on the season ERA.
Team strengthPadresSan leads 56–45 in T-Score.
PowerNationalsWashington has 195 home runs this season, 36 more than San.

Starting pitchers

WSH
Riley Cornelio RHP
Riley Cornelio
Washington Nationals
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
5.96
WHIP
1.81
K/9
9.13
BB/9
8.34
FIP
4.99
HR/9
0.79
OPS/R
0.936
IP
22.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA7.30
Road ERA4.35
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.50
QUALITY
START %
0%
(0 of 5)
DAYS
REST
6
SD
Casey Mize RHP
Casey Mize
San Diego Padres
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
3.64
74th
WHIP
1.12
38th
K/9
7.92
124th
BB/9
2.22
30th
P-Score64i
FIP
3.61
HR/9
1.03
88th
OPS/R
0.775
IP
113.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA2.98
Road ERA4.25
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.56
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
6
How the starters differ
·Mize allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.12 WHIP compared with 1.81.
·Mize owns the lower FIP, 3.61 to 4.99.
·Cornelio owns a 9.1 K/9 compared with Mize's 7.9.
·Cornelio allows the lower home-run rate: 0.79 vs 1.03 per nine.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricCornelioMizeNote
ERA−14089Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP4.993.61
WAR-0.12.7Season value.
Career vs opponent–– ERA, 1 GSCareer history against this opponent.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Cornelio arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Slider51%84.5
Four-seam44%96.5
Cutter5%90.1
Mize arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam35%93.4
Slider28%87.5
Splitter23%87.8
Sinker10%93.5
Slurve5%81.3

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Nationals vs RHP (Casey Mize)
7th
in MLB
0.742OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Padres vs RHP (Riley Cornelio)
22nd
in MLB
0.706OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Projected — not officialOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page →

Team comparison

OffenseWSHWSH·SDSD
AVG.248 10th.236 24th
OPS.752 3rd.700 25th
Home runs195 2nd159 19th
Runs750 2nd605 23rd
OBP.324 8th.314 19th
SLG.428 2nd.386 26th
PitchingWSHWSH·SDSD
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.72vs3.90
WSHSD
WHIP1.39vs1.29
WSHSD
K/97.9vs8.3
WSHSD
HR Allowed197vs157
WSHSD
BullpenWSHWSH·SDSD
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA4.95vs3.60
no league rank
Bullpen WHIP1.43vs1.26
no league rank
Saves34vs42
WSHSD
ResultsWSHWSH·SDSD
+2387th
Run differential
+17617th
67–79 Record76–68
4–6 Last 104–6
Last 10 games
Washington Nationals (4–6)
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
San Diego Padres (4–6)
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
2—4
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Nationals?+
Riley Cornelio (5.96 ERA, 2–2) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Padres?+
Casey Mize (3.64 ERA, 5–9) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
9:40 PM ET at Petco Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
What is the current moneyline?+
WSH +160 · SD −189 · Total 8. Lines are informational only.
What is the current total?+
The total is 8. Lines are informational.
How have the Nationals and Padres performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Padres 4–2 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
P-Score is available for one starter only.
Nationals vs Padres Preview, Starting Pitchers & Lineups — Sep 8, 2026 | PitcherStat