INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
MON · SEP 7, 2026
SEP 7
Today · 7:15 PM ETLineup pendingAL East / NL East

Tampa Bay Rays   vs   Atlanta Braves Preview

September 8, 2026

Starting pitchers, lineup status, recent form, weather and current moneyline context at Truist Park.

7:15 PM ET · Truist ParkStats availableLineups not confirmedLast update —
T-Score71
Tampa Bay Rays
85–58 · 1st AL East · T-Score 71
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First pitch 7:15 PM ET
Atlanta Braves
85–58 · 1st NL East · T-Score 81
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T-Score81
First pitch 7:15 PM ETNo line available
No line availableLast update —

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherRaysPeralta owns the stronger overall starter profile, with the higher P-Score and better strikeout and baserunner rates.
Offense vs handEvenThe handedness splits are nearly even, with less than a .015 difference in OPS.
Team strengthBravesAtlanta leads 81–71 in T-Score.
WeatherLow impact77°F, wind 5 mph, no precipitation expected at first pitch.

Starting pitchers

TB
Freddy Peralta RHP
Freddy Peralta
Tampa Bay Rays
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.96
157th
WHIP
1.37
143rd
K/9
8.57
88th
BB/9
3.31
125th
P-Score53i
FIP
4.49
HR/9
1.41
154th
OPS/R
0.750
IP
147.0
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA3.89
Road ERA6.19
Last 5 starts
ATL
AJ Smith-Shawver RHP
AJ Smith-Shawver
Atlanta Braves
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
7.13
WHIP
1.75
K/9
7.64
BB/9
5.60
FIP
4.74
HR/9
1.02
OPS/R
1.023
IP
17.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA5.40
Road ERA7.82
Last 5 starts
How the starters differ
·Peralta allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.37 WHIP compared with 1.75.
·Peralta enters with a 4.96 ERA compared with Smith-Shawver's 7.13.
·Smith-Shawver allows the lower home-run rate: 1.02 vs 1.41 per nine.
·Peralta enters with a 6.19 road ERA; Smith-Shawver owns a 5.40 ERA at home.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricPeraltaSmith-ShawverNote
ERA−120171Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP4.494.74
WAR1.40.1Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Peralta arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam52%94.2
Changeup23%87.2
Curveball13%79.2
Sweeper6%82.0
Slider5%83.1
Slow Curve1%74.8
Smith-Shawver arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam41%96.1
Splitter37%82.5
Curveball8%75.0
Sinker8%94.8
Slider8%84.7

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Rays vs RHP (AJ Smith-Shawver)
6th
in MLB
0.750OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Braves vs RHP (Freddy Peralta)
10th
in MLB
0.735OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Lineup pendingOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page →
Lineups not announced

Neither club has posted a batting order. Handedness composition, H-Score leaders and batter-vs-pitcher samples appear here as soon as the first order is filed — typically two to three hours before first pitch.

Team comparison

ResultsTBTB·ATLATL
+19711th
Run differential
+2525th
85–58 Record85–58
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Rays (0–0)
Atlanta Braves (0–0)
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
0—0
0 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Rays?+
Freddy Peralta is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Braves?+
AJ Smith-Shawver is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
7:15 PM ET at Truist Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not yet. Orders appear here when they are posted.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
P-Score is available for one starter only.