Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (2026-07-29). Jesús Luzardo vs Ryan Gusto at loanDepot park.

Starters — Luzardo has a 3.31 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 122.1 innings with 11.18 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.81 HR/9. His last three starts were excellent: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; and 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K, 2 BB. The trend is up, driven by swing-and-miss stuff and steady control. Gusto has a 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 34.0 innings with 8.21 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, and 0.79 HR/9. His last three appearances were 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB; 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB; and 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB. The trend is down, and the recent workload suggests a shorter outing profile.

Teams — Philadelphia has a .702 OPS, 467 runs, a 4.22 team ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. The Phillies are just 3-7 over their last 10, so the offense has not fully matched Luzardo’s recent form. Miami has a .732 OPS, 473 runs, a 4.07 team ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP. The Marlins have been slightly better than Philadelphia in season-long OPS, runs, ERA, and WHIP, but they are also cold at 2-8 in their last 10. Bettors should note the contrast between Luzardo’s current sharpness and two lineups that have both been struggling to convert overall production into recent results.