Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (2026-07-28). Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara at loanDepot park.

Starters — Nola enters with a 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 108.1 innings, pairing a strong 9.3 K/9 with 2.99 BB/9 but a damaging 2.08 HR/9. His last three starts were 5.1 IP/5 ER/4 K/1 BB, 6 IP/3 ER/6 K/4 BB, and 5 IP/2 ER/8 K/2 BB. The strikeout rate remains intact, but the overall trend is down, with home run prevention still the clearest risk. Alcantara carries a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 143.2 innings, with 6.89 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, and 1.06 HR/9. His last three starts were 7 IP/5 ER/3 K/1 BB, 6 IP/1 ER/7 K/4 BB, and 7 IP/3 ER/8 K/0 BB. His trend is also down, though his workload, control, and lower homer rate still profile more steadily than Nola’s.

Teams — Philadelphia has a .706 OPS, 467 runs, a .237 average, and a pitching staff with a 4.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The Phillies are 3-7 over their last 10, so the offense has been only middling while the staff has not consistently covered for it. Miami has a .733 OPS, 472 runs, a .251 average, and a team 4.11 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. The Marlins are just 1-9 in their last 10, which suggests their slightly better season-long offensive and run-prevention numbers have not translated into recent results.