Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
↓ ERA trending down lately
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-07-20). Nick Martinez vs Dylan Cease at Rogers Centre.
Starters — Martinez has a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 105.1 innings, with a modest 5.3 K/9, excellent 1.62 BB/9, and 0.94 HR/9. His last three starts were steady: 5.1 innings and 2 earned runs with 1 strikeout and 1 walk, then 5.1 innings and 1 earned run with 3 strikeouts and 1 walk, then 5.2 innings and 1 earned run with 3 strikeouts and no walks. The trend is listed down, but the recent run prevention and control remain strong. Cease enters with a 2.56 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 98.1 innings, backed by an elite 13.55 K/9, a higher 4.03 BB/9, and a stingy 0.46 HR/9. His last three starts show dominant upside: 8 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and 3 walks, 7 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk, and before that 4.2 innings with 4 earned runs, 10 strikeouts, and 5 walks. His trend is also listed down, but his strikeout ceiling has been obvious.
Teams — Tampa Bay brings the stronger offensive profile with a .731 OPS, 435 runs, and a .257 average. The Rays also have the better run prevention numbers overall, carrying a 3.90 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, though they are 4-6 over their last 10 games. Toronto has a .687 OPS, 397 runs, and a .242 average. The Blue Jays’ staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, and they are also 4-6 in their last 10. From a matchup standpoint, Tampa Bay looks more balanced on the season, while Toronto leans more heavily on Cease’s swing-and-miss advantage to shape the game.
Yandy Díaz has the deepest history against Dylan Cease, going 3-for-16 in 22 PA with a .597 OPS. Jonathan Aranda has fared well in a smaller sample at 2-for-4 in 6 PA with a 1.167 OPS, and Junior Caminero is 1-for-2 with a 1.000 OPS. Cedric Mullins is 2-for-5 in 6 PA with a .900 OPS, while Chandler Simpson is 1-for-1 in 2 PA with a 2.000 OPS and Richie Palacios is 1-for-3 with a .666 OPS. Nick Fortes is hitless at 0-for-2 with a .000 OPS, Taylor Walls is hitless at 0-for-2 in 4 PA with a .500 OPS, and Victor Mesa Jr. has no MLB history vs that pitcher.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. brings the most extensive track record against Nick Martinez, going 2-for-8 in 9 PA with a .958 OPS. George Springer is 1-for-2 with a 1.000 OPS, Kazuma Okamoto is 1-for-2 in 3 PA with a 1.167 OPS, Ernie Clement is 1-for-4 in 5 PA with a 1.250 OPS, and Andrés Giménez is 1-for-1 with a 2.000 OPS. Daulton Varsho is hitless at 0-for-5 with a .000 OPS, while Alejandro Kirk and Myles Straw are each hitless in 0-for-1 showings with .000 OPS marks. Nathan Lukes has no MLB history vs that pitcher.
Tampa Bay appears to have slightly more lineup-wide familiarity with the opposing starter, with several hitters carrying multiple prior plate appearances against Cease. Toronto has some productive individual histories against Martinez, but fewer batters with meaningful exposure overall.
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