Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-07-23). Ian Seymour vs Shane Bieber at Rogers Centre.

Starters — Ian Seymour has a 4.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 67.2 innings, with strong bat-missing ability at 10.51 K/9. The strikeout profile is supported by a 3.46 BB/9, but the 1.60 HR/9 is a clear risk point. His last three starts were uneven: 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 2 BB; 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 3 BB; and 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 K, 0 BB. The listed trend is up, though the recent workload has been short. Shane Bieber enters with a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 23.2 innings. He has posted 7.23 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, and a high 2.66 HR/9, which points to traffic plus damage when contact is made. His last three starts show volatility: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB; 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 3 BB; and 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K, 3 BB. The listed trend is down despite the strong most recent outing, mainly because the overall run prevention and WHIP remain weak.

Teams — Tampa Bay brings the stronger offensive baseline with a .738 OPS, 458 runs, and a .261 team average. The Rays also have the better run prevention profile, carrying a 3.84 team ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Their last 10 games are 5-5, which suggests a fairly neutral recent form. Toronto has a .680 OPS, 402 runs, and a .241 average, so the lineup has lagged behind Tampa Bay in both on-base impact and overall scoring. On the pitching side, the Blue Jays hold a 4.18 team ERA and 1.32 WHIP, both behind the Rays’ marks. Toronto is 3-7 over its last 10, which adds to the concern around current team form.