Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (2026-07-20). Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle at Fenway Park.
Starters — Baz carries a 4.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 111.2 innings, with 7.98 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, and a strong 0.73 HR/9. His last three starts were solid overall: 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB; 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB; and 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 4 BB. The trend is listed down, but the recent run prevention has been steady and the home run suppression stands out. Tolle has been sharper on the full-season line, posting a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 84 innings with 9.32 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, and 0.86 HR/9. His last three starts were 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB; 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB; and 3 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. His trend is also down, though two of the last three outings featured swing-and-miss stuff and limited damage.
Teams — Baltimore owns a .717 OPS and 459 runs, compared with Boston at .708 OPS and 413 runs. The Orioles have been the more productive offense by runs, while the Red Sox hold a slight edge in batting average at .244 versus .237. On the pitching side, Boston has the better team prevention profile with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while Baltimore sits at 4.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Recent form favors both clubs in different ways: the Orioles are 7-3 over their last 10, but the Red Sox enter on a 10-0 stretch. That combination points to Baltimore bringing the stronger season-long run output against a Boston club that has paired elite recent form with the more reliable staff numbers.
1.07 WHIP, K/9
and 459 runs
10, 3.53 ERA, WHIP
