4.19
ERA
1.39
WHIP
8.0
K/9
111.2
IP
19
GS
3.4
BB/9
vs BOS — career
2.77ERA2GS.239OPP AVG12K
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
5:6
Final
H2H 5–8
Starting pitchers
3.11
ERA
1.07
WHIP
9.3
K/9
84.0
IP
15
GS
2.7
BB/9
vs BAL — career
3.21ERA2GS.313OPP AVG14K
Starter form · last 5 starts
Matchup edge
Lineup threats vs starter
Orioles vs Payton Tolle
Avg OPS 0.9332 hot hittersTop: Ward 2.000 · Henderson 1.000 · Alonso 0.666
Boston vs Shane Baz
Avg OPS 0.7252 hot hittersTop: Durbin 1.500 · Abreu 1.100 · Rafaela 0.733
Baltimore Orioles batters vs Payton Tolle
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
Boston Red Sox batters vs Shane Baz
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
◆ Matchup preview
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (2026-07-20). Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle at Fenway Park.
Starters — Baz carries a 4.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 111.2 innings, with 7.98 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, and a strong 0.73 HR/9. His last three starts were solid overall: 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB; 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB; and 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 4 BB. The trend is listed down, but the recent run prevention has been steady and the home run suppression stands out. Tolle has been sharper on the full-season line, posting a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 84 innings with 9.32 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, and 0.86 HR/9. His last three starts were 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB; 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB; and 3 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. His trend is also down, though two of the last three outings featured swing-and-miss stuff and limited damage.
Teams — Baltimore owns a .717 OPS and 459 runs, compared with Boston at .708 OPS and 413 runs. The Orioles have been the more productive offense by runs, while the Red Sox hold a slight edge in batting average at .244 versus .237. On the pitching side, Boston has the better team prevention profile with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while Baltimore sits at 4.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Recent form favors both clubs in different ways: the Orioles are 7-3 over their last 10, but the Red Sox enter on a 10-0 stretch. That combination points to Baltimore bringing the stronger season-long run output against a Boston club that has paired elite recent form with the more reliable staff numbers.
Key facts
Payton Tolle: 3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.32 K/9Baltimore offense: .717 OPS and 459 runsBoston team form/pitching: 10-0 last 10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
◆ Lineup notes
Taylor Ward has the best track record here against Payton Tolle, going 2-for-2 in 3 PA with a 2.000 OPS. Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, and Coby Mayo have each gone 1-for-3, with Henderson carrying a 1.000 OPS while Alonso and Mayo both sit at .666. Tyler O'Neill is hitless, going 0-for-2 in 3 PA with a .333 OPS. Leody Taveras, Jeremiah Jackson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Sam Huff have no MLB history vs Tolle.
Ceddanne Rafaela has the deepest history against Shane Baz, going 3-for-9 in 10 PA with a .733 OPS, while Wilyer Abreu is 2-for-4 in 5 PA with a 1.100 OPS. Caleb Durbin has also fared well in a tiny sample at 1-for-2 with a 1.500 OPS, and Jarren Duran is 3-for-17 in 18 PA with a .575 OPS. Willson Contreras is hitless at 0-for-2 in 3 PA with a .333 OPS, Masataka Yoshida is 0-for-8 in 9 PA with a .111 OPS, and Connor Wong is 0-for-3 with a .000 OPS. Anthony Seigler and Tsung-Che Cheng have no MLB history vs Baz.
The home side has more hitters with established exposure to the opposing starter, and several of those matchups come with larger samples. The away side has one standout in Ward, but much of that group has either only a few trips or no prior history at all.
Head to head (2025–2026)
5—8
Boston Red Sox lead series
13 meetings total
2025-08-28
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
3–2
BOS
2025-08-27
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
3–2
BOS
2025-08-26
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
5–0
BOS
2025-08-25
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
4–3
BOS
2025-08-19
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
4–3
BAL
Team picture · 2026
BAL
BOS
Team AVG
0.237
0.244
Team OPS
0.717
0.708
Home runs
119
94
Runs scored
459
413
Team ERA
4.21
3.53
HR allowed
109
100
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