Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals (2026-07-28). Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli at Nationals Park.

Starters — Bieber has a 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 30.2 IP with 6.46 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, and 2.05 HR/9. His last three starts were strong: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB; 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB; and 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 3 BB. The trend is down, and the recent run prevention has clearly improved, but the season line still shows elevated traffic and home run risk. Cavalli has a 3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 110.2 IP with 10.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, and 0.73 HR/9. His last three starts were 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 2 BB; 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB. The trend is also down, backed by swing-and-miss stuff, solid control, and strong home run suppression.

Teams — Toronto owns a .682 OPS and 419 runs scored, with a 4.14 team ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last 10, and the offense has been modest by the numbers, so their path is often tied to limiting damage on the mound. Washington carries a .775 OPS and 586 runs scored, with a 4.76 team ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Nationals are 6-4 in their last 10, and their stronger lineup profile stands out, although the pitching staff has allowed more baserunners and run prevention has been less stable than Toronto’s overall staff marks.