Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
↑ ERA trending up lately
↓ ERA trending down lately
Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.
Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (2026-07-28). Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King at Petco Park.
Starters — Lorenzen has a 6.53 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across 100.2 innings, with 6.97 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, and 1.43 HR/9. His last three starts were mixed: 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 1 BB; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 3 BB; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. The recent trend is up, but the full-season profile still shows traffic on the bases and home run risk. King has a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 119.1 innings, with 7.77 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, and 0.83 HR/9. His last three starts were all sharp: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 4 BB; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB; and 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB. The trend is down, pointing to improving run prevention.
Teams — Colorado brings a .741 OPS, .254 average, and 507 runs, giving them the stronger raw offensive line in this matchup. The concern for bettors is the supporting pitching staff, which has a 5.55 team ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and the Rockies are 3-7 over their last 10 games. San Diego has a .692 OPS, .232 average, and 442 runs, so the offense has been less productive overall. The Padres have been more stable on the mound with a 4.19 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and they are 5-5 in their last 10. This sets up as Colorado’s better offense against San Diego’s cleaner pitching foundation.
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