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5in the bubble

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres

Tuesday, Jul 28, 2026Petco Park9:40 PM ETPreview
COL · Away · 42-65

Colorado Rockies

NL West · 5th · 25.5 GB
:
9:40 PM ET
H2H 310
SD · Home · 53-53

San Diego Padres

NL West · 3rd · 14.0 GB
Starting pitchers
Starter form · last 5 starts
Season6.53
Last 54.98
1.55 ERA better in last 5
7 days restQS 20%Blow-up 1/5
206/27
207/02
207/07
107/12
607/21

↑ ERA trending up lately

Season3.24
Last 52.99
0.25 ERA better in last 5
6 days restQS 60%Blow-up 0/5
406/28
207/03
107/08
107/17
107/22

↓ ERA trending down lately

Matchup edge
Michael King pitching edge·Rockies 37 L10
PitchingPadres
Rockies0Padres69
HittingRockies
Rockies42Padres31
BullpenPadres
Rockies21Padres51
Lineup not yet announced · posted ~1–2 hrs before first pitch
Projected hitters vs RHP / RHP
Rockies vs RHP
Avg OPS 0.9343 hot hittersTop: Carrigg 1.045 · Moniak 1.026 · Rumfield 0.928

Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.

Padres vs RHP
Avg OPS 0.7731 hot hitterTop: Campusano 0.995 · Taylor 0.799 · France 0.746

Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.

Colorado Rockies hitters vs RHP (projected)
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
0.233
0.845
31
0.286
1.045
5
0.305
1.026
16
0.305
0.928
13
0.284
0.828
10
San Diego Padres hitters vs RHP (projected)
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
0.223
0.746
16
0.289
0.995
4
0.310
0.799
1
0.170
0.636
23
◆ Matchup preview

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (2026-07-28). Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King at Petco Park.

Starters — Lorenzen has a 6.53 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across 100.2 innings, with 6.97 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, and 1.43 HR/9. His last three starts were mixed: 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 1 BB; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 3 BB; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. The recent trend is up, but the full-season profile still shows traffic on the bases and home run risk. King has a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 119.1 innings, with 7.77 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, and 0.83 HR/9. His last three starts were all sharp: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 4 BB; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB; and 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB. The trend is down, pointing to improving run prevention.

Teams — Colorado brings a .741 OPS, .254 average, and 507 runs, giving them the stronger raw offensive line in this matchup. The concern for bettors is the supporting pitching staff, which has a 5.55 team ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and the Rockies are 3-7 over their last 10 games. San Diego has a .692 OPS, .232 average, and 442 runs, so the offense has been less productive overall. The Padres have been more stable on the mound with a 4.19 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and they are 5-5 in their last 10. This sets up as Colorado’s better offense against San Diego’s cleaner pitching foundation.

Key facts
Michael Lorenzen has a 6.53 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 100.2 IPMichael King has allowed 1 earned run in each of his last 3 startsColorado owns a .741 OPS, but its staff carries a 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP
Head to head (2025–2026)
310
San Diego Padres lead series
13 meetings total
2025-09-14
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
69
SD
2025-09-13
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
311
SD
2025-09-12
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
42
COL
2025-09-11
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
02
SD
2025-09-07
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
81
SD
Team picture · 2026
37
LLWLWLLWLL
55
WWWLLWLWLL
COL
SD
Team AVG
0.254
0.232
Team OPS
0.741
0.692
Home runs
120
118
Runs scored
507
442
Team ERA
5.55
4.19
HR allowed
152
119

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