Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-27). Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns at Great American Ball Park.

Starters — Cecconi has a 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 103.2 innings, with 7.12 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, and 1.30 HR/9. His last three starts were 4.2 innings, 3 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 3 walks; 3.2 innings, 3 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 1 walk; and 5 innings, 5 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk. The recent form points up in risk, with shorter outings and steady run allowance. Burns has been far sharper, carrying a 2.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 107.2 innings, with 10.37 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9. His last three starts were 5 innings, 0 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, 2 walks; 5 innings, 3 earned runs, 2 strikeouts, 6 walks; and 6 innings, 2 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 2 walks. The trend is down, but that appears tied more to command fluctuation than damage prevention, as he has allowed only 5 earned runs in those three outings.

Teams — Cleveland enters with a .680 OPS and 420 runs scored, backed by a 3.75 team ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Guardians are on a 3-7 run over their last 10, so the stronger team pitching profile has recently been offset by lighter offensive production. Cincinnati has a .705 OPS and 432 runs scored, with a 4.52 team ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The Reds are 6-4 over their last 10 and bring the slightly better run creation numbers, though their staff has been more vulnerable over the full season. This sets up as Cleveland leaning more on overall run prevention, while Cincinnati leans more on the edge at the top of the matchup with Burns and a modestly better offense.