Philadelphia Phillies 5, Atlanta Braves 6

The standings say this is a close matchup. The probable pitching matchup says otherwise.

Atlanta enters Friday at 86-61, four games ahead of Philadelphia in the NL East, and over the full season these clubs have been separated by only narrow margins at the plate. The Braves average 4.56 runs per game to the Phillies’ 4.48, with slight edges in batting average (.246 to .242), slugging (.408 to .400) and OPS (.717 to .712). Philadelphia has been a touch better in on-base percentage, .312 to .309. In other words, not much about the offensive profiles creates much daylight.

Chris Sale does.

If the probable starters hold, Atlanta sends the stronger statistical case to the mound by a wide margin. Sale has worked 150 innings with a 2.10 ERA, 2.26 FIP and 1.01 WHIP across 25 starts. Aaron Nola has logged 155 innings in 29 starts, but with a 4.76 ERA, 4.71 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The gap extends across nearly every indicator that matters: Sale has the better strikeout rate, the lower walk rate, the lower home-run rate and a 72 percent quality-start rate, compared with 35 percent for Nola.

That last number may be the cleanest snapshot of the difference in reliability. Atlanta has gotten a quality start from Sale in nearly three out of every four outings. Philadelphia has gotten one from Nola a little more than once every three starts.

The contrast matters even more because the rest of the matchup is so tight. Neither club comes in on a major surge. The Braves are 4-6 over their last 10 games with 3.50 runs per game in that stretch, while the Phillies are 5-5 and scoring 3.70. The bullpens are also close enough that it is hard to frame either side as having a substantial late-game advantage. Atlanta owns a 3.72 bullpen ERA; Philadelphia sits at 3.75. The Phillies do bring a slightly better bullpen WHIP and a notably higher strikeout rate.

So this game shapes up less as a referendum on which lineup is better and more as a question of whether Philadelphia can neutralize Atlanta’s biggest edge. Over the course of the season, these teams have looked similar enough to remain within four games of each other. On Friday night, the most meaningful difference is likely to be the one that starts on the mound.

• Atlanta holds a four-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East, but the season-long team offense numbers are very close.
• The probable starting-pitching matchup strongly favors the Braves: Chris Sale has major advantages over Aaron Nola in ERA, FIP, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and quality-start rate.
• Recent form and bullpen numbers offer little separation, making the starting-pitcher contrast the central angle in this matchup.