INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
NYLATYOBERLON
THU · SEP 10, 2026
SEP 10
Today · 7:10 PM ETLineup pendingAL Central / AL East

Kansas City Royals   vs   Boston Red Sox Preview

September 11, 2026

Starting pitchers, lineup status, recent form, weather and current moneyline context at Fenway Park.

7:10 PM ET · Fenway ParkStats availableLineups not confirmedLast update —
T-Score33
Kansas City Royals
65–82 · 5th AL Central · T-Score 33
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First pitch 7:10 PM ET
Boston Red Sox
80–67 · 3rd AL East · T-Score 79
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T-Score79
First pitch 7:10 PM ETNo line available
No line availableLast update —

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherSoxGray owns the stronger overall starter profile, with the higher P-Score and better strikeout and baserunner rates.
Offense vs handEvenBoth offenses perform near the same level against the opposing starter's handedness.
Team strengthSoxBoston leads 79–33 in T-Score.
WeatherLow impact62°F, wind 3 mph, no precipitation expected at first pitch.

Starting pitchers

KC
Seth Lugo RHP
Seth Lugo
Kansas City Royals
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
5.04
163rd
WHIP
1.44
175th
K/9
6.74
185th
BB/9
2.89
89th
P-Score49i
FIP
4.16
HR/9
1.02
82nd
OPS/R
0.750
IP
159.0
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA4.07
Road ERA6.19
Last 5 starts
BOS
Sonny Gray RHP
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
2.69
15th
WHIP
1.16
57th
K/9
8.06
118th
BB/9
2.39
42nd
P-Score75i
FIP
3.49
HR/9
0.90
56th
OPS/R
0.695
IP
150.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA2.77
Road ERA2.62
Last 5 starts
How the starters differ
·Gray allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.16 WHIP compared with 1.44.
·Gray enters with a 2.69 ERA compared with Lugo's 5.04.
·Gray strikes out 1.3 more batters per nine innings.
·Lugo carries a 6.19 road ERA, compared with Gray's 2.77 mark at home.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricLugoGrayNote
ERA−11863Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP4.163.49
WAR2.03.0Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Lugo arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Sinker20%91.4
Cutter16%89.9
Four-seam16%91.7
Curveball15%77.2
Sweeper11%79.2
Slider9%84.3
Changeup9%85.0
Slow Curve2%69.2
Slurve1%77.3
Gray arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Sinker21%92.1
Sweeper20%84.9
Cutter19%88.3
Four-seam17%91.6
Curveball17%79.7
Changeup5%86.1
Slow Curve0%74.1

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Royals vs RHP (Sonny Gray)
13th
in MLB
0.725OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Sox vs RHP (Seth Lugo)
16th
in MLB
0.717OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Lineup pendingOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page →
Lineups not announced

Neither club has posted a batting order. Handedness composition, H-Score leaders and batter-vs-pitcher samples appear here as soon as the first order is filed — typically two to three hours before first pitch.

Team comparison

ResultsKCKC·BOSBOS
+10126th
Run differential
+2525th
65–82 Record80–67
Last 10 games
Kansas City Royals (0–0)
Boston Red Sox (0–0)
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
0—0
0 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Royals?+
Seth Lugo is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Sox?+
Sonny Gray is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Fenway Park, home of the Boston Red Sox.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not yet. Orders appear here when they are posted.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Seth Lugo is at 49; Sonny Gray is at 75. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.