INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
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FinalFinal lineupsNL East / NL West

Miami Marlins 4, Arizona Diamondbacks 3

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

9:40 PM ET · Chase FieldGame-day snapshot Sep 18, 2:01 AM ETFinal lineups lockedCurrent 2026 season stats — updated Oct 29, 5:00 AM ET
T-Score42
Miami Marlins
80–82 · 3rd NL East · T-Score 42
4
4–3
FINAL · 9 innings
Arizona Diamondbacks
86–76 · 3rd NL West · T-Score 39
3
T-Score39
FINAL · 9 innings
Pitching recap
PitcherTeamRoleIPHERBBKP
Ryan GustoMIA
Starter
4.1821486
Cade GibsonMIA
ReliefWin
1.2100123
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
ReliefSave
1.0001013
Merrill KellyAZ
StarterLoss
4.2732991
Scoring by inning
123456789RHE
MIAMiami Marlins0220000004100
AZArizona Diamondbacks0100100103101
Top hitters
Jakob Marsee2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 BB
Gabriel Moreno3-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI
Nolan Arenado2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI
Pavin Smith2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI
Heriberto Hernández4-for-5 · 1 RBI

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherMarlinsMiami has the stronger starting-pitcher profile: Gusto leads in P-Score, K/9 and last-5 ERA.
Offense vs handMarlinsMiami owns a .743 OPS vs RHP, 7th in MLB; Arizona ranks 26th vs RHP.
BullpenDiamondbacksArizona owns a 3.48 bullpen ERA this season, compared with Miami's 4.30.
Recent formDiamondbacksArizona has been the better recent team, at 6–4 over the last 10.
WeatherModerate impactA 4 mph wind could modestly increase carry on fly balls.

Pregame contextStarting pitchers

MIA
Ryan Gusto RHP
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.14
109th
WHIP
1.40
168th
K/9
7.47
139th
BB/9
2.87
86th
P-Score44i
FIP
–
HR/9
1.03
99th
OPS/R
–
IP
78.1
Last 5 starts
ERA
2.92
QUALITY
START %
20%
(1 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
AZ
Merrill Kelly RHP
Merrill Kelly
Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.97
162nd
WHIP
1.46
178th
K/9
6.04
199th
BB/9
3.97
171st
P-Score40i
FIP
–
HR/9
1.60
174th
OPS/R
–
IP
152.0
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.33
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
How the starters differ
·Gusto strikes out 1.4 more batters per nine innings.
·Gusto allows the lower home-run rate: 1.03 vs 1.60 per nine.
·Gusto enters with a 4.14 ERA compared with Kelly's 4.97.
·Kelly averages 1.3 more innings per start.

Marlins at Diamondbacks — Arizona Has More at Stake Than the Numbers Suggest

Miami and Arizona look remarkably similar in several places. The Marlins score 4.45 runs per game, the Diamondbacks 4.44. Their bullpen ERAs are 4.06 and 3.95, and both relief groups rank among MLB’s best eight in WHIP. Arizona’s urgency is different: the Diamondbacks sit 2.5 games from the final NL Wild Card spot. Ryan Gusto gives Miami an encouraging starting matchup, with better ERA, FIP, WHIP and strikeout numbers than Merrill Kelly. The Marlins have also won four of five meetings this season. Arizona does have one clear comfort zone — Chase Field, where it is 43–34 — and September is leaving fewer chances to turn that home edge into ground in the standings.

Written by PitcherStat ·

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Gusto arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam29%94.7
Changeup14%87.2
Sweeper13%81.7
Cutter12%89.3
Sinker12%93.1
Slider12%85.4
Curveball9%78.5
Kelly arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Changeup28%88.5
Four-seam28%92.1
Cutter13%91.0
Curveball12%82.5
Slider10%86.3
Sinker10%92.4

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Marlins vs RHP (Merrill Kelly)
7th
in MLB
0.743OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Diamondbacks vs RHP (Ryan Gusto)
26th
in MLB
0.697OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineup strength vs today's starter

Weighted by batting-order spot. Season rates are regressed toward league average before they enter the model.

Updated Sep 16, 7:40 PM ET
MIAMIA
.751
+14 ptsOPS edge
AZAZ
.737

Even matchup

Full lineup comparison

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Miami MarlinsOfficial lineupvs RHP Merrill Kelly
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Kelly (BvP)
1Kyle StowersL1B69.79021.8212-for-5Very small sample
2Heriberto HernándezRLF70.75525.7331-for-4Very small sample
3Otto LopezRSS67.78611.7655-for-7Very small sample
4Griffin ConineLRF72.84619.9220-for-2Very small sample
5Javier SanojaR3B60.79111.7530-for-4Very small sample
6Jakob MarseeLCF52.70711.7212-for-5Very small sample
7Xavier EdwardsS2B54.7316.7382-for-8Very small sample
8Joe MackLC52.68514.7300-for-2Very small sample
9Esteury RuizRRF40.6996.6501-for-3Very small sample
1Kyle Stowers 1B · L.239 / .790 · 21 HRvs hand .821 · 2-for-5 · Very small sample69H-Score2Heriberto Hernández LF · R.228 / .755 · 25 HRvs hand .733 · 1-for-4 · Very small sample70H-Score3Otto Lopez SS · R.305 / .786 · 11 HRvs hand .765 · 5-for-7 · Very small sample67H-Score4Griffin Conine RF · L.264 / .846 · 19 HRvs hand .922 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample72H-Score5Javier Sanoja 3B · R.295 / .791 · 11 HRvs hand .753 · 0-for-4 · Very small sample60H-Score6Jakob Marsee CF · L.231 / .707 · 11 HRvs hand .721 · 2-for-5 · Very small sample52H-Score7Xavier Edwards 2B · S.280 / .731 · 6 HRvs hand .738 · 2-for-8 · Very small sample54H-Score8Joe Mack C · L.234 / .685 · 14 HRvs hand .730 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample52H-Score9Esteury Ruiz RF · R.216 / .699 · 6 HRvs hand .650 · 1-for-3 · Very small sample40H-Score
Arizona DiamondbacksOfficial lineupvs RHP Ryan Gusto
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Gusto (BvP)
1Lars NootbaarLLF63.7218.8001-for-1Very small sample
2Ketel MarteS2B70.74822.6870-for-2Very small sample
3Gabriel MorenoRC75.87416.9091-for-1Very small sample
4Geraldo PerdomoSSS60.7479.7621-for-2Very small sample
5Corbin CarrollLRF75.79522.7271-for-2Very small sample
6Nolan ArenadoR3B62.80630.7750-for-2Very small sample
7Jesús SánchezLDH52.7128.755No MLB historyNo history
8Pavin SmithL1B28.5563.5740-for-2Very small sample
9Tim TawaR1B54.69011.704No MLB historyNo history
1Lars Nootbaar LF · L.239 / .721 · 8 HRvs hand .800 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample63H-Score2Ketel Marte 2B · S.249 / .748 · 22 HRvs hand .687 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample70H-Score3Gabriel Moreno C · R.311 / .874 · 16 HRvs hand .909 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample75H-Score4Geraldo Perdomo SS · S.262 / .747 · 9 HRvs hand .762 · 1-for-2 · Very small sample60H-Score5Corbin Carroll RF · L.239 / .795 · 22 HRvs hand .727 · 1-for-2 · Very small sample75H-Score6Nolan Arenado 3B · R.255 / .806 · 30 HRvs hand .775 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample62H-Score7Jesús Sánchez DH · L.254 / .712 · 8 HRvs hand .755 · No MLB history · No history52H-Score8Pavin Smith 1B · L.183 / .556 · 3 HRvs hand .574 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample28H-Score9Tim Tawa 1B · R.240 / .690 · 11 HRvs hand .704 · No MLB history · No history54H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseMIAMIA·AZAZ
AVG.249 7th.246 12th
OPS.726 10th.720 14th
Home runs168 23rd166 25th
Runs715 18th739 11th
OBP.326 6th.318 13th
SLG.400 18th.402 15th
PitchingMIAMIA·AZAZ
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.09vs4.18
MIAAZ
WHIP1.28vs1.28
MIAAZ
K/98.3vs7.1
MIAAZ
HR Allowed171vs186
MIAAZ
BullpenMIAMIA·AZAZ
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA4.30vs3.48
no league rank
Bullpen WHIP1.32vs1.18
no league rank
Saves35vs38
MIAAZ
ResultsMIAMIA·AZAZ
+36217th
Run differential
+38512th
80–82 Record86–76
4–6 Last 106–4
Last 10 games
Miami Marlins (4–6)
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
Arizona Diamondbacks (6–4)
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
3—3
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Marlins?+
Ryan Gusto (4.14 ERA, 1–5) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Diamondbacks?+
Merrill Kelly (4.97 ERA, 9–13) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
9:40 PM ET at Chase Field.
Where is the game being played?+
Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Marlins and Diamondbacks performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Diamondbacks 3–3 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Ryan Gusto is at 44; Merrill Kelly is at 40. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.