Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Cincinnati Reds 1

Los Angeles is 90-58 and leading the NL West on an 8-2 run; Cincinnati is 69-79 and 23.5 games out of the Central. Every team category favors the Dodgers — 5.01 runs per game to 4.22, a .759 OPS to .705, and a 29-point on-base edge — but the starting pitching is where this becomes lopsided.

Tarik Skubal has a 2.84 ERA supported by an even better 2.58 FIP, a 0.97 WHIP, 10.6 strikeouts against just 1.6 walks per nine, and quality starts in 61% of his outings. He has been every bit as good lately: a 2.53 ERA with 6.1 innings per start over five turns. Nick Lodolo's numbers run the other way on all of it — a 5.12 ERA with a 5.62 FIP that is actually worse, a 1.53 WHIP, 3.8 walks and 1.7 home runs per nine, and a 22% quality-start rate. The 3.04-point FIP gap is the largest between any two starters today. His recent work offers no relief either: a 5.87 ERA across five starts averaging 4.2 innings.

Both pitchers throw left-handed, and Cincinnati carries a .762 OPS against lefties, its weaker split — though that number sits on a small sample and should be read loosely. The Reds' bigger problem is a bullpen that is both the worse unit (4.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP against 3.96 and 1.28) and the more exhausted, having used nine relievers across 10 innings in three days. Great American plays at a 1.01 factor on a calm 66°F evening.