INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
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FinalFinal lineupsNL East / NL Central

Atlanta Braves 3, Chicago Cubs 7

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

7:40 PM ET · Wrigley FieldGame-day snapshot Sep 16, 2:01 AM ETFinal lineups lockedCurrent 2026 season stats — updated Oct 8, 5:01 AM ET
T-Score55
Atlanta Braves
94–68 · 1st NL East · T-Score 55
3
3–7
FINAL · 9 innings
Chicago Cubs
89–73 · 2nd NL Central · T-Score 64
7
T-Score64
FINAL · 9 innings
Pitching recap
PitcherTeamRoleIPHERBBKP
Reynaldo LópezATL
StarterLoss
3.0652262
David PetersonCHC
StarterWin
6.0313785
Scoring by inning
123456789RHE
ATLAtlanta Braves000000300380
CHCChicago Cubs0320020007101
Top hitters
Pete Crow-Armstrong4-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI
Mike Yastrzemski1-for-1 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 BB
Nico Hoerner2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 R
Carson Kelly1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
Michael Conforto1-for-4 · 1 RBI

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherEvenThe starters grade similarly overall, with no clear advantage across P-Score, ERA and WHIP.
Offense vs handCubsChicago owns a .757 OPS vs RHP, 3th in MLB; Atlanta ranks 21th vs LHP.
LineupBravesAtlanta's official lineup includes 5 right-handed bats against the opposing starter.
Starter formCubsPeterson has a 3.20 ERA over his last five starts, while López is at 5.84.
WeatherModerate impactA 11 mph wind could modestly increase carry on fly balls.

Pregame contextStarting pitchers

ATL
Reynaldo López RHP
Reynaldo López
Atlanta Braves
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.13
142nd
WHIP
1.39
170th
K/9
8.37
106th
BB/9
3.77
167th
P-Score43i
FIP
–
HR/9
1.30
126th
OPS/R
–
IP
76.1
Last 5 starts
ERA
5.84
QUALITY
START %
0%
(0 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
CHC
David Peterson LHP
David Peterson
Chicago Cubs
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
5.28
155th
WHIP
1.58
194th
K/9
8.02
104th
BB/9
4.04
175th
P-Score50i
FIP
–
HR/9
0.96
53rd
OPS/R
–
IP
131.1
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.20
QUALITY
START %
20%
(1 of 5)
DAYS
REST
6
How the starters differ
·López allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.39 WHIP compared with 1.58.
·López enters with a 4.13 ERA compared with Peterson's 5.28.
·Peterson has produced a quality start in 33% of outings versus 0%.
·López has been more vulnerable to home runs, allowing 0.34 more per nine innings.

Two Struggling Starters and a Cubs Lineup That Punishes Lefties

Atlanta is 88-61 and leads the NL East; Chicago is 83-66 and second in the Central. Both are 5-5 in their last ten, so the separation has to come from elsewhere — and it comes from the bats. The Cubs score 5.36 runs per game to Atlanta's 4.65, with a 48-point OPS edge built on a .339 on-base percentage against .311.

Neither starter inspires confidence. David Peterson has a 5.28 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, the worst WHIP among today's starters, with 4.0 walks per nine and quality starts in only 15% of his outings; his 4.14 FIP does suggest some bad luck, and his recent strikeout rate of 10.5 per nine is genuinely good, but 5.6 walks per nine over those same five starts is not. Reynaldo López carries a lower 4.13 ERA on a thin 76.1-inning sample, with an 8% quality-start rate and a 5.84 ERA over his last five. Both have been averaging around five innings or fewer.

The handedness note cuts in Atlanta's favor here: Chicago posts an .807 OPS against left-handed pitching, but it is Chicago's own Peterson who throws left-handed, and Atlanta's split against lefties is a mild .698. Atlanta also holds the bullpen edge at 3.41 against 3.89, with better strikeout and WHIP numbers. Wrigley is the one venue where conditions matter today: a 14 mph wind, 65°F and a 0.98 park factor.

Written by PitcherStat ·

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

López arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam54%94.1
Slider31%84.2
Curveball11%74.6
Changeup4%84.3
Peterson arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Sinker30%92.2
Four-seam25%92.5
Slider22%86.4
Changeup13%85.7
Curveball11%80.5

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Braves vs LHP (David Peterson)
21st
in MLB
0.696OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Cubs vs RHP (Reynaldo López)
3rd
in MLB
0.757OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineup strength vs today's starter

Weighted by batting-order spot. Season rates are regressed toward league average before they enter the model.

Updated Sep 14, 4:41 PM ET
ATLATL
.724
−50 ptsOPS edge
CHCCHC
.774

Clear edge: CHC

Full lineup comparison

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Atlanta BravesOfficial lineupvs LHP David Peterson
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs LHPVs Peterson (BvP)
1Ronald Acuña Jr.RRF76.79620.7497-for-23Small sample
2Drake BaldwinLC82.81725.695No MLB historyNo history
3Matt OlsonL1B85.82341.8245-for-24Small sample
4Ozzie AlbiesS2B54.68522.7270-for-3Very small sample
5Michael Harris IILCF78.81226.7800-for-5Very small sample
6Mauricio DubónRLF57.72012.675No MLB historyNo history
7Austin RileyR3B61.65419.6639-for-26Limited history
8Sean MurphyRC35.5563.3702-for-11Small sample
9Ha-Seong KimRSS21.3590.2330-for-1Very small sample
1Ronald Acuña Jr. RF · R.255 / .796 · 20 HRvs hand .749 · 7-for-23 · Small sample76H-Score2Drake Baldwin C · L.284 / .817 · 25 HRvs hand .695 · No MLB history · No history82H-Score3Matt Olson 1B · L.251 / .823 · 41 HRvs hand .824 · 5-for-24 · Small sample85H-Score4Ozzie Albies 2B · S.237 / .685 · 22 HRvs hand .727 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample54H-Score5Michael Harris II CF · L.294 / .812 · 26 HRvs hand .780 · 0-for-5 · Very small sample78H-Score6Mauricio Dubón LF · R.276 / .720 · 12 HRvs hand .675 · No MLB history · No history57H-Score7Austin Riley 3B · R.219 / .654 · 19 HRvs hand .663 · 9-for-26 · Limited history61H-Score8Sean Murphy C · R.182 / .556 · 3 HRvs hand .370 · 2-for-11 · Small sample35H-Score9Ha-Seong Kim SS · R.116 / .359 · 0 HRvs hand .233 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample21H-Score
Chicago CubsOfficial lineupvs RHP Reynaldo López
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs López (BvP)
1Pete Crow-ArmstrongLCF84.94245.973No MLB historyNo history
2Seiya SuzukiRRF78.84126.7970-for-1Very small sample
3Michael BuschL1B68.74520.7361-for-2Very small sample
4Alex BregmanR3B76.81928.7992-for-12Small sample
5Ian HappSLF67.73824.8161-for-8Very small sample
6Nico HoernerR2B49.6668.665No MLB historyNo history
7Michael ConfortoLDH71.80015.774No MLB historyNo history
8Pedro RamírezS2B55.7236.662No MLB historyNo history
9Carson KellyRC59.71210.6381-for-1Very small sample
1Pete Crow-Armstrong CF · L.280 / .942 · 45 HRvs hand .973 · No MLB history · No history84H-Score2Seiya Suzuki RF · R.270 / .841 · 26 HRvs hand .797 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample78H-Score3Michael Busch 1B · L.242 / .745 · 20 HRvs hand .736 · 1-for-2 · Very small sample68H-Score4Alex Bregman 3B · R.265 / .819 · 28 HRvs hand .799 · 2-for-12 · Small sample76H-Score5Ian Happ LF · S.218 / .738 · 24 HRvs hand .816 · 1-for-8 · Very small sample67H-Score6Nico Hoerner 2B · R.263 / .666 · 8 HRvs hand .665 · No MLB history · No history49H-Score7Michael Conforto DH · L.240 / .800 · 15 HRvs hand .774 · No MLB history · No history71H-Score8Pedro Ramírez 2B · S.261 / .723 · 6 HRvs hand .662 · No MLB history · No history55H-Score9Carson Kelly C · R.258 / .712 · 10 HRvs hand .638 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample59H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseATLATL·CHCCHC
AVG.246 10th.251 6th
OPS.718 17th.767 1st
Home runs204 8th220 3rd
Runs742 8th850 1st
OBP.309 28th.339 2nd
SLG.409 7th.428 1st
PitchingATLATL·CHCCHC
1stMLB rank30th
ERA3.63vs4.12
ATLCHC
WHIP1.24vs1.26
ATLCHC
K/98.4vs7.8
ATLCHC
HR Allowed185vs231
ATLCHC
BullpenATLATL·CHCCHC
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA3.89vs3.90
no league rank
Bullpen WHIP1.25vs1.27
no league rank
Saves49vs36
ATLCHC
ResultsATLATL·CHCCHC
+32012th
Run differential
+4422nd
94–68 Record89–73
5–5 Last 105–5
Last 10 games
Atlanta Braves (5–5)
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
Chicago Cubs (5–5)
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
2—4
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Braves?+
Reynaldo López (4.13 ERA, 4–4) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Cubs?+
David Peterson (5.28 ERA, 7–8) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field.
Where is the game being played?+
Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Braves and Cubs performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Cubs 4–2 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Reynaldo López is at 43; David Peterson is at 50. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.