San Diego Padres 8, Colorado Rockies 7

San Diego is 80-68 and second in the NL West; Colorado is 55-93 and 35 games back, having lost eight of ten. The Padres are the hotter team by every measure except one — Colorado actually scores more runs per game on the season, 4.70 to 4.28, and holds a 31-point OPS edge, which is almost entirely a function of playing half its games at altitude.

Casey Mize leads the starting matchup across the board: a 3.70 ERA to Tomoyuki Sugano's 5.30, a 3.61 FIP to 5.40, a 1.11 WHIP to 1.34, 2.6 more strikeouts per nine and 0.8 fewer home runs allowed. Sugano's 5.5 strikeouts per nine is the lowest figure among today's starters, a profile with very little margin at Coors, and his last five starts have been a collapse — a 9.38 ERA across 4.2 innings per outing. Mize has not been sharp lately either, with a 5.01 ERA and his strikeout rate down to 5.8 per nine, also averaging just 4.2 innings.

Short outings from both starters point the game at the bullpens early, and there San Diego holds a decisive advantage: a 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine against Colorado's 4.97, 1.49 and 7.5. The Padres' pen is also fresher, four arms for six innings against six arms for seven. Coors carries a 1.08 park run factor, the only significant venue effect on today's slate.