INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
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FinalFinal lineupsNL Central

Chicago Cubs 4, Cincinnati Reds 6

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

6:40 PM ET · Great American Ball ParkGame-day snapshot Sep 20, 2:01 AM ETFinal lineups lockedCurrent 2026 season stats — updated Oct 29, 5:00 AM ET
T-Score52
Chicago Cubs
89–73 · 2nd NL Central · T-Score 52
4
4–6
FINAL · 9 innings
Cincinnati Reds
75–87 · 5th NL Central · T-Score 19
6
T-Score19
FINAL · 9 innings
Pitching recap
PitcherTeamRoleIPHERBBKP
Clay HolmesCHC
StarterLoss
5.1365497
Chase BurnsCIN
Starter
3.0422467
Julian AguiarCIN
ReliefWin
3.0421254
Emilio PagánCIN
ReliefSave
1.0001118
Scoring by inning
123456789RHE
CHCChicago Cubs011200000491
CINCincinnati Reds201003000680
Top hitters
Ian Happ1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI
Seiya Suzuki1-for-5 · 2 RBI
Jose Trevino1-for-4 · 2 RBI
Carson Kelly2-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
Eugenio Suárez1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherRedsBurns holds a modest edge in P-Score and K/9, while the ERA gap is small.
Offense vs handCubsChicago owns a .757 OPS vs RHP, 3th in MLB; Cincinnati ranks 27th vs RHP.
BullpenCubsChicago owns a 3.99 bullpen ERA this season, compared with Cincinnati's 4.50.
Recent formCubsChicago has been the better recent team, at 4–6 over the last 10.
Plate disciplineCubsChicago has drawn 643 walks this season, 109 more than Cincinnati.

Pregame contextStarting pitchers

CHC
Clay Holmes RHP
Clay Holmes
Chicago Cubs
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
2.85
38th
WHIP
1.15
70th
K/9
6.97
173rd
BB/9
3.34
156th
P-Score57i
FIP
–
HR/9
0.59
8th
OPS/R
–
IP
91.2
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.49
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
6
CIN
Chase Burns RHP
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
2.80
22nd
WHIP
1.15
61st
K/9
10.76
16th
BB/9
3.21
123rd
P-Score67i
FIP
–
HR/9
0.95
74th
OPS/R
–
IP
151.1
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.52
QUALITY
START %
0%
(0 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
How the starters differ
·Burns strikes out 3.8 more batters per nine innings.
·Holmes has produced a quality start in 40% of outings versus 0%.
·Burns has been more vulnerable to home runs, allowing 0.36 more per nine innings.
·Holmes carries a 4.44 road ERA, compared with Burns's 2.24 mark at home.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Holmes arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Sinker49%93.1
Sweeper18%81.3
Changeup15%88.0
Cutter10%86.2
Curveball7%81.1
Four-seam1%92.9
Burns arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam55%97.6
Slider39%90.2
Changeup5%90.2
Sinker0%97.1
Curveball0%81.9

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Cubs vs RHP (Chase Burns)
3rd
in MLB
0.757OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Reds vs RHP (Clay Holmes)
27th
in MLB
0.693OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineup strength vs today's starter

Weighted by batting-order spot. Season rates are regressed toward league average before they enter the model.

Updated Sep 18, 4:40 PM ET
CHCCHC
.772
+52 ptsOPS edge
CINCIN
.720

Clear edge: CHC

Full lineup comparison

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Chicago CubsOfficial lineupvs RHP Chase Burns
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Burns (BvP)
1Pete Crow-ArmstrongLCF81.94245.9730-for-1Very small sample
2Seiya SuzukiRRF75.84126.7970-for-3Very small sample
3Michael BuschL1B65.74520.7360-for-1Very small sample
4Alex BregmanR3B73.81928.7990-for-3Very small sample
5Ian HappSLF64.73824.8161-for-1Very small sample
6Nico HoernerR2B48.6668.6651-for-1Very small sample
7Michael ConfortoLDH68.80015.7740-for-2Very small sample
8Carson KellyRC56.71210.638No MLB historyNo history
9Dansby SwansonRSS50.69419.6770-for-1Very small sample
1Pete Crow-Armstrong CF · L.280 / .942 · 45 HRvs hand .973 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample81H-Score2Seiya Suzuki RF · R.270 / .841 · 26 HRvs hand .797 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample75H-Score3Michael Busch 1B · L.242 / .745 · 20 HRvs hand .736 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample65H-Score4Alex Bregman 3B · R.265 / .819 · 28 HRvs hand .799 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample73H-Score5Ian Happ LF · S.218 / .738 · 24 HRvs hand .816 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample64H-Score6Nico Hoerner 2B · R.263 / .666 · 8 HRvs hand .665 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample48H-Score7Michael Conforto DH · L.240 / .800 · 15 HRvs hand .774 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample68H-Score8Carson Kelly C · R.258 / .712 · 10 HRvs hand .638 · No MLB history · No history56H-Score9Dansby Swanson SS · R.213 / .694 · 19 HRvs hand .677 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample50H-Score
Cincinnati RedsOfficial lineupvs RHP Clay Holmes
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Holmes (BvP)
1Carlos JorgeLCF—.6061.630No MLB historyNo history
2Elly De La CruzSSS84.88030.8340-for-3Very small sample
3Sal StewartR1B75.78732.782No MLB historyNo history
4Tyler StephensonRC67.72715.7481-for-4Very small sample
5JJ BledayLLF67.74024.779No MLB historyNo history
6Eugenio SuárezRDH62.74026.7482-for-9Very small sample
7Héctor RodríguezLRF42.6806.782No MLB historyNo history
8Jose TrevinoRC30.5575.607No MLB historyNo history
9Matt McLainR2B48.60815.5520-for-1Very small sample
1Carlos Jorge CF · L.217 / .606 · 1 HRvs hand .630 · No MLB history · No history—H-Score2Elly De La Cruz SS · S.283 / .880 · 30 HRvs hand .834 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample84H-Score3Sal Stewart 1B · R.263 / .787 · 32 HRvs hand .782 · No MLB history · No history75H-Score4Tyler Stephenson C · R.241 / .727 · 15 HRvs hand .748 · 1-for-4 · Very small sample67H-Score5JJ Bleday LF · L.217 / .740 · 24 HRvs hand .779 · No MLB history · No history67H-Score6Eugenio Suárez DH · R.212 / .740 · 26 HRvs hand .748 · 2-for-9 · Very small sample62H-Score7Héctor Rodríguez RF · L.229 / .680 · 6 HRvs hand .782 · No MLB history · No history42H-Score8Jose Trevino C · R.217 / .557 · 5 HRvs hand .607 · No MLB history · No history30H-Score9Matt McLain 2B · R.185 / .608 · 15 HRvs hand .552 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample48H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseCHCCHC·CINCIN
AVG.251 6th.229 30th
OPS.767 1st.699 25th
Home runs220 3rd213 4th
Runs850 1st666 27th
OBP.339 2nd.305 30th
SLG.428 1st.394 25th
PitchingCHCCHC·CINCIN
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.12vs4.83
CHCCIN
WHIP1.26vs1.44
CHCCIN
K/97.8vs8.1
CHCCIN
HR Allowed231vs214
CHCCIN
BullpenCHCCHC·CINCIN
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA3.99vs4.50
no league rank
Bullpen WHIP1.30vs1.37
no league rank
Saves36vs42
CHCCIN
ResultsCHCCHC·CINCIN
+5081st
Run differential
+23229th
89–73 Record75–87
4–6 Last 102–8
Last 10 games
Chicago Cubs (4–6)
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
Cincinnati Reds (2–8)
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
5—8
13 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Cubs?+
Clay Holmes (2.85 ERA, 6–7) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Reds?+
Chase Burns (2.80 ERA, 15–3) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
6:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Great American Ball Park, home of the Cincinnati Reds.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Cubs and Reds performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Reds 8–5 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Clay Holmes is at 57; Chase Burns is at 67. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.