Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan are separated by three hundredths of a run in ERA. Their teams have more distance between them — and Texas has less time to close it.
The Rangers open in Minnesota three games from the listed AL Wild Card position, one of several races moving across a 17-game schedule. Cleveland and the White Sox begin at the same time with one game between them in the AL Central. The Yankees play Baltimore twice after taking three of four from Tampa Bay, while the Rays move on to Philadelphia and a meeting with Cristopher Sánchez.
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There is plenty happening outside the standings, too. The Cubs bring MLB’s highest-scoring offense to Fenway Park for two games against baseball’s best bullpen, and Arizona arrives in San Diego with five straight wins.
deGrom and Ryan open an important series for Texas
The Rangers are 79-80. They are also three games from the listed AL Wild Card position, which makes a strong start from Jacob deGrom more valuable than the record alone suggests.
Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan, and the first comparison could hardly be closer: Ryan owns a 3.83 ERA, deGrom a 3.86.
deGrom has been better by several of the numbers behind ERA. His FIP is 3.11, his WHIP 1.10, and he has struck out 11.1 batters per nine across 158.2 innings. Ryan has a 3.75 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, but he has issued only 1.9 walks per nine and owns a slight edge in quality-start percentage.
Minnesota has supplied more offense over the season, averaging 4.53 runs per game to Texas’ 4.16. The Twins have also won all three previous meetings between the clubs.
Texas has won six of its last 10, though its 34-44 road record remains a problem. If the Rangers are going to cut into that three-game gap, opening a series behind deGrom is about as good a place as they could ask to start.
Cleveland and Chicago hit the field together
At 7:40 ET, Gavin Williams will be starting in Kansas City.
At 7:40 ET, Sean Burke will be starting in Chicago.
One game separates their teams.
Cleveland leads the AL Central at 83-76 and has won eight of its last 10. Williams has been a major part of that pitching staff, carrying a 3.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 181 innings. His 12.1 strikeouts per nine rank fourth in the supplied starter pool.
Kansas City answers with Noah Cameron, who has put together a solid season of his own: 3.92 ERA and 3.76 FIP over 172.1 innings. The larger concern for the Royals comes after Cameron. Their bullpen ERA is 5.00, and their 1.51 relief WHIP is the worst in MLB.
The White Sox face a very different opponent. Colorado is 57-102 and just 25-53 away from home, while Burke enters with a 3.40 ERA over 167 innings.
The Rockies can still hit. They rank seventh in runs per game and fourth in slugging, numbers that look almost out of place beside their overall record.
Chicago begins the night at 82-77. Cleveland begins at 83-76. Neither club will have to wait for the other score before taking the field.
Sánchez gets the first look at Tampa Bay
The Rays left New York with their AL East lead reduced to four games and a two-game losing streak.
Philadelphia has lost two straight as well, but the Phillies have Cristopher Sánchez lined up for the opener.
Sánchez has thrown exactly 200 innings with a 2.93 ERA and 2.81 FIP. He has struck out 9.9 batters per nine, walked 2.0 and recorded a quality start in 66 percent of his outings.
Freddy Peralta’s season has been much less steady. Tampa Bay’s probable starter owns a 4.56 ERA and 4.31 FIP through 163.2 innings.
The difference is not confined to ERA. Sánchez also has the better WHIP, strikeout rate, walk rate and home-run rate in the supplied comparison.
Tampa Bay’s best counter may come after the starters leave. Rays relievers have a 1.20 WHIP, third in MLB, compared with 1.35 for Philadelphia.
The offenses are closer. Tampa Bay scores 4.52 runs per game; Philadelphia 4.43.
For a Rays club coming off a rough finish in New York, the next series begins against a pitcher who has been giving Philadelphia both quality and volume all year.
The Cubs get two games against Boston’s best weapon
Chicago leads MLB with 5.29 runs per game.
Boston’s bullpen leads MLB with a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
They get two games at Fenway Park to see which strength holds up.
The Cubs have also been first in slugging and OPS, with 218 home runs, second in baseball. Boston has not matched that production at the plate, but very few teams have shortened games as effectively once the bullpen takes over.
The first pitching pairing is Clay Holmes against Alec Gamboa. Holmes has a 3.25 ERA over 97 innings. Gamboa’s 1.16 ERA catches the eye, though he has made only two starts; his 3.16 FIP offers a more measured view of those 31 innings.
David Peterson and Brayan Bello are listed for the later game. Peterson carries a 4.96 ERA, Bello a 4.49.
Both clubs also have standings reasons to care about every result. Chicago is listed second in the NL Wild Card standings. Boston holds the same position in the American League.
A two-game day can move those records quickly.
Arizona’s five-game streak reaches Petco Park
The Diamondbacks have won five in a row and moved to 85-74.
San Diego has gone 16-4 over its last 20.
That is enough to make the series opener at Petco Park worth attention even without a completed pitching matchup.
Arizona is two games from the listed NL Wild Card position. San Diego sits first in that race at 89-70 and has been excellent at home, going 49-29.
The clubs have played 10 times this season and split them evenly.
Brandon Pfaadt is Arizona’s probable starter. He has a 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 128.1 innings, with a 4.00 FIP. San Diego had not listed its starter when the day’s data was collected, so there is no reason to pretend the pitching picture is complete.
The Padres’ bullpen is known, however, and it has been strong: a 3.46 ERA, fifth in MLB.
Arizona arrives with the longer active winning streak. San Diego arrives with the better recent 20-game record and one of the league’s stronger home records.
That is enough story for the opener without inventing the missing half of the pitching matchup.
Around the rest of the slate
Orioles at Yankees — New York gets two home games after closing the gap in the AL East. The Yankees took three of four from Tampa Bay and now trail by four. They have also won eight of 10 against Baltimore this season. One of the two games has New York’s starter still TBD; the other lists Trevor Rogers against Brendan Beck, whose current numbers come from only 7.2 innings.
Pirates at Tigers — Pittsburgh has been playing better baseball. The Pirates are 7-3 over their last 10 and rank sixth in MLB in runs per game. Bubba Chandler starts against Jackson Jobe. Jobe’s 3.98 ERA has come from eight starts and 40.2 innings, while Pittsburgh arrives with the deeper recent run.
Mets at Nationals — Washington has the more dangerous offense. The Nationals rank third in runs per game and have won seven of their last 10. Andrew Alvarez owns a 3.17 ERA and 3.13 FIP over 108 innings. The Mets had not named their probable starter when the data was collected.
Reds at Blue Jays — Cincinnati has hit for power without scoring enough. The Reds rank fourth with 211 home runs but only 26th in runs per game and last in on-base percentage. Toronto ranks last in scoring and has lost three straight. Nick Lodolo is listed for Cincinnati; Toronto’s starter remained TBD.
Braves at Marlins — Atlanta has dominated the season series. The Braves have won eight of 10 against Miami and lead the NL East at 93-66. Miami lists Eury Pérez, who has a 4.14 ERA and 9.7 K/9 across 150 innings. Atlanta had not announced its probable starter.
Cardinals at Brewers — Milwaukee is back home with win No. 100 already secured. The Brewers are 52-26 at American Family Field and have won seven of nine against St. Louis. Their offense ranks second in runs per game, and their bullpen ranks third in ERA. Michael McGreevy and Robert Gasser are separated by only 0.17 in ERA.
Astros at Athletics — Houston remains first in the AL West at 79-80. The Astros won the opener 7-5. Hunter Brown starts with a 3.26 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine, while Oakland counters with Jacob Lopez and a bullpen carrying an MLB-worst 5.27 ERA.
Angels at Mariners — Reid Detmers gives Los Angeles the stronger pitching line. The Angels won the opener 6-4. Detmers has a 3.47 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 1.05 WHIP through 179 innings. Seattle and Los Angeles rank 28th and 29th in runs per game, respectively.
Dodgers at Giants — Tarik Skubal gets the series opener. Los Angeles has lost two straight but remains 15-5 over its last 20. Skubal owns a 2.85 ERA, 2.61 FIP and 0.99 WHIP. Yunior Marte is listed for San Francisco, though his current line covers only two starts and 19.1 innings.
A lot can move before the West Coast games
Texas starts the night three games from the listed Wild Card line with deGrom on the mound.
Cleveland and Chicago begin simultaneously with one game between them. The Yankees have two games to work with after cutting Tampa Bay’s division lead to four. The Rays, meanwhile, have to deal with Sánchez in Philadelphia.
Later comes Arizona-San Diego: a five-game winning streak against a team that is 16-4 over its last 20.
By then, the scores from Kansas City, Chicago, New York and Philadelphia will already be shaping the standings.
September 25 gives several races the same evening to move.
