Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (2026-08-04). Jared Jones vs Logan Henderson at American Family Field.

Starters — Jared Jones carries a 3.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 52 innings, with a strong 10.04 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 1.21 HR/9. His last three starts were solid: 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB; 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB; and 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB. The recent form points up, with swing-and-miss intact and run prevention mostly stable. Logan Henderson has been sharper on the surface, posting a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 44 innings, alongside an 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, and 1.02 HR/9. His last three starts: 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB; and 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB. His trend is listed down, but the recent game log still shows elite command and bat-missing ability.

Teams — Pittsburgh brings the better offensive profile by OPS at .749 and has scored 582 runs while batting .258. The concern for bettors is the supporting staff behind Jones, as the Pirates own a 4.29 team ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offense is a bit lighter at a .734 OPS with 558 runs and a .253 average, but the overall pitching foundation is stronger with a 3.48 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10, suggesting steadier but not dominant recent form. This matchup sets up as Pittsburgh’s slightly better lineup against Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile.