Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (2026-08-04). Ryan Gusto vs Grant Holmes at Truist Park.

Starters — Ryan Gusto carries a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across 39 innings, with 7.85 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.92 HR/9. His last three appearances were mixed but the recent trend is up: 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K, 2 BB on July 29; 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB on July 24; and 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB on July 21. Grant Holmes has a 3.88 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 102 innings, with 7.68 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, and 1.59 HR/9. His last three starts have been steady, and his trend is also up: 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 2 BB on July 30; 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB on July 24; and 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 2 BB on July 19. Holmes brings the larger workload and better full-season run prevention, while Gusto has allowed fewer home runs per nine but has the weaker WHIP.

Teams — Miami enters with a .732 OPS and 496 runs scored, alongside a 4.00 team ERA and 1.24 WHIP. The Marlins are 6-4 over their last 10, which suggests decent recent form, and their offensive production is close enough to keep this matchup competitive if they get cleaner innings early. Atlanta owns a .733 OPS and 549 runs scored, with a 3.67 team ERA and the same 1.24 WHIP. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the stronger season-long run production, plus the better team ERA. The offenses are nearly identical by OPS, but Atlanta has converted that into more total runs and has paired it with better overall pitching.