Matthew Boyd LHP
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.05
107th
WHIP
1.23
75th
K/9
6.95
169th
BB/9
2.73
67th
P-Score52i
FIP
4.57
HR/9
1.32
138th
OPS/R
0.764
IP
102.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA5.40
Road ERA2.83
Last 5 starts
ERA
5.16
Today · 2:10 PM ETOfficial lineupNL Central
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
September 7, 2026
Starting pitchers, lineup status, recent form, weather and current moneyline context at American Family Field.
2:10 PM ET · American Family FieldStats updated Sep 7, 1:50 PM ETLineups confirmed Sep 7, 12:10 PMLast update Sep 7, 10:45 AM ET
Matchup at a glance
PitcherStat calculationWhat matters in this matchup
Brewers’ bullpen edge meets Cubs’ stronger bats in a key NL Central matchup
The standings say Milwaukee has controlled this division race. The underlying matchup for Sept. 7 says Chicago still brings a real challenge.
The first-place Brewers enter at 88-55, seven games ahead of the second-place Cubs at 81-62, but this is not a matchup built around one-sided team profiles. Chicago has been the more productive offense over the full season, averaging 5.31 runs per game to Milwaukee’s 5.00 while also holding the edge in slugging (.431 to .400) and OPS (.770 to .739). That offensive advantage has shown up recently too: the Cubs have scored 7.0 runs per game over their last 10, compared with 5.8 for the Brewers.
Milwaukee, though, has paired its record with a much stronger bullpen. That may be the clearest team-level edge in the game. Brewers relievers carry a 3.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, all comfortably better than Chicago’s 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. In a matchup between division rivals with fairly comparable overall records, that late-inning gap stands out.
The probable starters offer a more mixed comparison.
Chicago’s Matthew Boyd has the better surface line in several categories, bringing a 4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and a 39 percent quality-start rate into his 19th start. Milwaukee’s Robert Gasser sits at a 4.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 25 percent quality-start rate through 16 starts. If the question is who has more often provided steadier run prevention deep enough into games, the numbers lean to Boyd.
But Gasser’s profile is not without its counters. His 4.36 FIP is a bit lower than Boyd’s 4.57, and he has generated more strikeouts, 8.5 per nine against Boyd’s 7.0. That gives Milwaukee’s probable starter the better swing-and-miss number even if Chicago’s has been slightly cleaner in ERA, WHIP and home-run rate.
There is a broader theme to this game: Chicago’s season line points to the stronger offense, while Milwaukee’s record and bullpen numbers point to a team that has been more reliable at closing games out. Even the probable starters split the comparison rather than handing one side a clean advantage.
That is what makes this matchup interesting. The Cubs have the bats to pressure Milwaukee early. The Brewers have the relief corps and the standings edge that suggest they have been better at turning close games into wins.
- Chicago owns the better season offensive profile, leading Milwaukee in runs per game (5.31 to 5.00), slugging (.431 to .400) and OPS (.770 to .739).
- Milwaukee’s biggest statistical edge is in the bullpen: 3.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 versus Chicago’s 4.32, 1.32 and 8.1.
- Probable starter Matthew Boyd has the better ERA, WHIP and quality-start rate, while Robert Gasser brings the lower FIP and higher strikeout rate.
Starting pitchers
Robert Gasser LHP
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.57
142nd
WHIP
1.29
104th
K/9
8.52
93rd
BB/9
2.80
76th
P-Score54i
FIP
4.37
HR/9
1.35
148th
OPS/R
0.829
IP
86.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA4.05
Road ERA5.01
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.81
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
| Metric | Boyd | Gasser | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERA− | 99 | 111 | Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average. |
| FIP | 4.57 | 4.37 | |
| WAR | 0.9 | 1.0 | Season value. |
| Career vs opponent | 5.06 ERA, 1 GS | 4.15 ERA, 1 GS | Career history against this opponent. |
How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix
Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.
Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand
Lineups
Team comparison
CHC·MILAVG.252 5th.256 3rd
OPS.771 1st.739 5th
Home runs201 1st133 30th
Runs768 1st726 3rd
OBP.340 1st.339 2nd
SLG.431 1st.400 18th
CHC·MIL1stMLB rank30th
CHCMIL
CHCMIL
CHCMIL
CHCMIL
CHC·MIL1stMLB rank30th
no league rank
no league rank
CHCMIL
CHC·MIL+2972nd
Run differential
+3061st
81–63 Record88–56
5–5 Last 105–5
Last 10 games
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
7—6
Frequently asked
Who is starting for the Cubs?+
Matthew Boyd (4.05 ERA, 8–3) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Brewers?+
Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA, 4–5) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
2:10 PM ET at American Family Field.
Where is the game being played?+
American Family Field, home of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Yes. Both batting orders on this page are official (posted Sep 7, 12:10 PM ET).
What is the current moneyline?+
CHC +105 · MIL −125 · Total 8.5. Lines are informational only.
What is the current total?+
The total is 8.5. Lines are informational.
How have the Cubs and Brewers performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Brewers 6–7 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Matthew Boyd is at 52; Robert Gasser is at 54. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.