Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-11). Javier Assad vs Nick Lodolo at Great American Ball Park.

Starters — Assad: 4.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 56.1 IP, 5.27 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 1.60 HR/9. His last three starts: 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB; 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K, 2 BB; 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB. The trend is up, with solid control and a low WHIP, but the home run rate remains a concern in this park. Lodolo: 4.68 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 57.2 IP, 7.18 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9. His last three starts: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB; 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 4 BB; 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. The trend is down, and that is favorable here, as he has allowed just 1 earned run across his last 15.0 innings despite some walk volatility.

Teams — Chicago enters with a .745 OPS, 471 runs, a 4.35 team ERA, and a 1.28 team WHIP. The Cubs are 6-4 over their last 10, and their offensive edge is clear in both OPS and total run production. Cincinnati carries a .701 OPS, 388 runs, a 4.48 team ERA, and a 1.44 team WHIP. The Reds are 4-6 in their last 10, and the profile points to less consistent run creation and more traffic allowed by the pitching staff. Chicago also holds the better batting average at .243 compared with Cincinnati’s .228.