Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-10). Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene at Great American Ball Park.

Imanaga brings a much larger body of work into this matchup, logging 103 innings across 18 starts with a 4.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.74 K/9, and 2.27 BB/9. His recent run has been fairly steady rather than dominant, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, with 18 strikeouts against five walks over that span, although the trend marker still points slightly upward on ERA and his quality-start rate sits at only 20 percent. Greene’s season line is based on just one outing, and it was volatile: 3.1 innings, eight earned runs, four walks, seven strikeouts, a 21.60 ERA, and 3.30 WHIP. The raw swing-and-miss was obvious with an 18.9 K/9 in that start, but the 10.8 BB/9 and 100 percent blow-up rate make command and efficiency the immediate concerns.

Chicago has been the more reliable offensive club, carrying a .749 OPS with 471 runs, a .337 OBP, and 118 home runs, while also entering on a 7-3 form run. Cincinnati’s lineup has been less productive overall at a .698 OPS with 384 runs, a .309 OBP, and 113 home runs, and the recent 3-7 stretch reinforces the gap in consistency. On the pitching side, neither staff has been airtight, but the Cubs hold the better team marks with a 4.35 ERA and 1.27 WHIP versus the Reds at 4.53 and 1.45. Chicago also pairs that with stronger control indicators at the team level, while Cincinnati’s higher WHIP leaves more traffic on base in a park that can punish mistakes quickly.

The recent head-to-head sample leans toward Cincinnati, which won eight of the last 13 meetings, including a four-game sweep in the most recent 2025 series. At the same time, those matchups showed a mixed scoring profile, ranging from 1-0 and 3-2 type games to 13-6 and 11-8 results, which fits the tension around a 9.5 total at Great American Ball Park. With Imanaga offering the more stable baseline but not a shutdown profile, and Greene bringing premium strikeout ability with almost no established run prevention in 2026, the total reflects both the venue and the possibility of crooked numbers if command slips early.