Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (2026-08-01). Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park.

Starters — Braxton Ashcraft enters with a 4.05 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 122.1 innings, backed by strong bat-missing and control numbers with 9.93 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9. His 1.18 HR/9 is manageable, but his last three starts point the wrong way: 6.0 IP, 4 ER; 3.0 IP, 7 ER; and 5.0 IP, 5 ER. That recent stretch supports the listed upward trend in ERA risk. Andrew Abbott has a 3.85 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 117.0 innings. He has lower strikeout impact than Ashcraft at 7.23 K/9 and a much higher walk rate at 4.15 BB/9, with 1.31 HR/9. His last three starts were more stable overall: 6.0 IP, 2 ER; 6.0 IP, 0 ER; and 4.0 IP, 4 ER. His recent form suggests a downward trend in run prevention after the rougher July 12 outing.

Teams — Pittsburgh brings the stronger offensive profile with a .755 OPS and 572 runs scored, compared with Cincinnati’s .707 OPS and 451 runs. The Pirates also carry the better season-long pitching marks, posting a 4.29 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while the Reds sit at a 4.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Recent form cuts the other way, though. Pittsburgh is 3-7 over its last 10 games, while Cincinnati is 7-3, which may matter for bettors weighing current momentum against larger-sample production. On pure season numbers, Pittsburgh looks more complete offensively and slightly cleaner on the mound, but Cincinnati comes in playing better baseball over the last 10.