Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-31). Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene at Great American Ball Park.

Starters — Paul Skenes enters with a 3.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 120.2 innings, backed by elite swing-and-miss stuff at 11.11 K/9. His control has been strong at 2.09 BB/9, and he has limited damage well with a 0.82 HR/9. Over his last three starts, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings with 11 strikeouts, then 1 earned run across 7 innings with 8 strikeouts, then 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings with 7 strikeouts. The overall profile remains strong, but the listed trend is down after the roughest outing in that span. Hunter Greene has a 7.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 21.2 innings, though the strikeout rate is still loud at 12.05 K/9. His walk rate sits at 2.91 BB/9 and his home run rate at 1.25 HR/9. In his last three starts, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings with 3 strikeouts, before 3 earned runs in 6 innings with 7 strikeouts, and 0 earned runs in 7 innings with 12 strikeouts. That line shows volatility, with clear upside but less consistency so far.

Teams — Pittsburgh brings the better offensive baseline with a .755 OPS, .259 average, and 565 runs scored. The Pirates have also been steadier on the mound overall, posting a 4.26 team ERA and 1.32 WHIP, although their recent form is weak at 3-7 over the last 10 games. Cincinnati has a .704 OPS, .230 average, and 443 runs, which points to a lighter run-production profile. The Reds’ pitching staff has a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, both slightly behind Pittsburgh’s season numbers, but they have been playing better recently at 6-4 over the last 10. Great American Ball Park can pressure pitchers who allow traffic or mistakes in the zone, so command and home-run suppression stand out heavily here.