Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (2026-08-02). Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns at Great American Ball Park.

Starters — Mitch Keller has a 4.83 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 113.2 innings, with 6.89 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, and 1.03 HR/9. In his last three starts, he allowed 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk, then 0 earned runs in 5 innings with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks, then 3 earned runs in 3 innings with 3 strikeouts and 2 walks. His recent form has been better than the full-season line, even with the listed trend marked down. Chase Burns has a 2.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 112.2 innings, with 10.22 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, and 1.04 HR/9. In his last three starts, he gave up 1 earned run in 5 innings with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks, then 0 earned runs in 5 innings with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks, then 3 earned runs in 5 innings with 2 strikeouts and 6 walks. His strikeout rate remains a major edge, and his last two outings were sharp despite the listed down trend.

Teams — Pittsburgh brings the stronger offense by the numbers, posting a .754 OPS, 576 runs, and a .259 average. The Pirates also have the better team run prevention profile, with a 4.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but they enter on a 4-6 run over their last 10 games. Cincinnati has a .705 OPS, 452 runs, and a .230 average, so the lineup has been less productive overall. The Reds have a 4.43 team ERA and 1.42 WHIP, which trails Pittsburgh in both categories, though they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. That creates an interesting split between Cincinnati’s edge on the mound in this matchup and Pittsburgh’s stronger full-team season metrics.