INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
ETLATYOBERLON
FinalFinal lineupsAL Central / AL West

Minnesota Twins 5, Seattle Mariners 3

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

10:10 PM ET · T-Mobile ParkStats updated Jul 31, 11:45 PM ETFinal lineups locked
T-Score45
Minnesota Twins
70–79 · 4th AL Central · T-Score 45
5
5–3
FINAL
Seattle Mariners
70–80 · 3rd AL West · T-Score 42
3
T-Score42
FINAL

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherMarinersMiller leads Matthews in P-Score (52 vs 47), WHIP and K/9.
Offense vs handTwinsMinnesota has produced the stronger offense against right-handed pitching.
BullpenEvenThe two bullpens have produced similar season ERA and WHIP.
Recent formTwinsMinnesota has won 6 of its last 10 and owns the stronger recent run differential.
WeatherLow impact62°F, wind 7 mph, no precipitation expected at first pitch.

Starting pitchers

MIN
Zebby Matthews RHP
Zebby Matthews
Minnesota Twins
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.98
154th
WHIP
1.27
94th
K/9
7.47
139th
BB/9
2.79
70th
P-Score47i
FIP
4.83
HR/9
1.73
192nd
OPS/R
0.714
IP
119.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA2.84
Road ERA6.93
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.94
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
7
SEA
Bryce Miller RHP
Bryce Miller
Seattle Mariners
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.19
113th
WHIP
1.16
52nd
K/9
8.89
72nd
BB/9
2.85
81st
P-Score52i
FIP
4.30
HR/9
1.68
185th
OPS/R
0.621
IP
107.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA3.66
Road ERA4.60
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.40
QUALITY
START %
20%
(1 of 5)
DAYS
REST
7
How the starters differ
·Miller owns a 8.9 K/9 compared with Matthews's 7.5.
·The WHIP gap favors Miller, 1.16 to 1.27.
·Miller enters with a 4.19 ERA compared with Matthews's 4.98.
·Matthews has produced a quality start in 40% of outings versus 20%.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricMatthewsMillerNote
ERA−113109Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP4.834.30
WAR0.51.0Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Matthews arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam36%95.2
Slider22%87.2
Changeup13%86.8
Cutter12%90.8
Curveball12%79.9
Sinker5%95.1
Miller arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam39%96.0
Splitter24%84.7
Slider11%87.3
Sinker9%95.2
Sweeper7%83.7
Cutter6%91.0
Knuckle Curve4%83.0

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Twins vs RHP (Bryce Miller)
7th
in MLB
0.743OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Mariners vs RHP (Zebby Matthews)
17th
in MLB
0.715OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Minnesota TwinsOfficial lineupvs RHP Bryce Miller
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Miller (BvP)
1Trevor LarnachLLF66.78813.819No MLB historyNo history
2Ryan JeffersRC82.85614.860No MLB historyNo history
3Kody ClemensL2B77.77926.810No MLB historyNo history
4Josh BellSDH72.73819.737No MLB historyNo history
5Royce LewisR1B60.68814.668No MLB historyNo history
6Alan RodenLRF—.6460.576No MLB historyNo history
7Brooks LeeS3B63.72623.790No MLB historyNo history
8Luke KeaschallR2B59.7509.785No MLB historyNo history
9Tristan GrayLSS31.5914.597No MLB historyNo history
1Trevor Larnach LF · L.269 / .788 · 13 HRvs hand .819 · No MLB history · No history66H-Score2Ryan Jeffers C · R.266 / .856 · 14 HRvs hand .860 · No MLB history · No history82H-Score3Kody Clemens 2B · L.243 / .779 · 26 HRvs hand .810 · No MLB history · No history77H-Score4Josh Bell DH · S.253 / .738 · 19 HRvs hand .737 · No MLB history · No history72H-Score5Royce Lewis 1B · R.230 / .688 · 14 HRvs hand .668 · No MLB history · No history60H-Score6Alan Roden RF · L.254 / .646 · 0 HRvs hand .576 · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7Brooks Lee 3B · S.247 / .726 · 23 HRvs hand .790 · No MLB history · No history63H-Score8Luke Keaschall 2B · R.273 / .750 · 9 HRvs hand .785 · No MLB history · No history59H-Score9Tristan Gray SS · L.225 / .591 · 4 HRvs hand .597 · No MLB history · No history31H-Score
Seattle MarinersOfficial lineupvs RHP Zebby Matthews
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Matthews (BvP)
1Cole YoungL2B61.70517.754No MLB historyNo history
2Randy ArozarenaRLF79.84925.814No MLB historyNo history
3Dominic CanzoneLDH78.80722.798No MLB historyNo history
4Julio RodríguezRCF66.69821.705No MLB historyNo history
5Josh NaylorL1B55.69210.682No MLB historyNo history
6Cal RaleighSC62.66021.711No MLB historyNo history
7Weston WilsonR3B35.6404.714No MLB historyNo history
8Colt EmersonLSS29.5818.571No MLB historyNo history
9Victor RoblesRRF32.6230.593No MLB historyNo history
1Cole Young 2B · L.250 / .705 · 17 HRvs hand .754 · No MLB history · No history61H-Score2Randy Arozarena LF · R.276 / .849 · 25 HRvs hand .814 · No MLB history · No history79H-Score3Dominic Canzone DH · L.257 / .807 · 22 HRvs hand .798 · No MLB history · No history78H-Score4Julio Rodríguez CF · R.242 / .698 · 21 HRvs hand .705 · No MLB history · No history66H-Score5Josh Naylor 1B · L.271 / .692 · 10 HRvs hand .682 · No MLB history · No history55H-Score6Cal Raleigh C · S.180 / .660 · 21 HRvs hand .711 · No MLB history · No history62H-Score7Weston Wilson 3B · R.221 / .640 · 4 HRvs hand .714 · No MLB history · No history35H-Score8Colt Emerson SS · L.190 / .581 · 8 HRvs hand .571 · No MLB history · No history29H-Score9Victor Robles RF · R.256 / .623 · 0 HRvs hand .593 · No MLB history · No history32H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseMINMIN·SEASEA
AVG.244 15th.232 29th
OPS.723 11th.692 28th
Home runs174 13th173 15th
Runs683 9th612 28th
OBP.318 12th.312 24th
SLG.405 11th.380 28th
PitchingMINMIN·SEASEA
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.69vs4.22
MINSEA
WHIP1.38vs1.25
MINSEA
K/98.5vs8.7
MINSEA
HR Allowed173vs185
MINSEA
BullpenMINMIN·SEASEA
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA4.18vs3.80
no league rank
Saves41vs33
MINSEA
ResultsMINMIN·SEASEA
+15922nd
Run differential
+12624th
70–79 Record70–80
6–4 Last 103–7
Last 10 games
Minnesota Twins (6–4)
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
Seattle Mariners (3–7)
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
3—4
7 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Twins?+
Zebby Matthews (5.21 ERA, 4–8) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Mariners?+
Bryce Miller (2.75 ERA, 4–5) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.
Where is the game being played?+
T-Mobile Park, home of the Seattle Mariners.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Twins and Mariners performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Mariners 4–3 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Zebby Matthews is at 47; Bryce Miller is at 52. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.