San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (2026-07-26). Walker Buehler vs Janson Junk at loanDepot park.

Starters — Buehler enters with a 5.23 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 94.2 innings, with 7.99 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9. His last three starts were uneven: 5.2 innings and 2 earned runs with 3 strikeouts and 5 walks on July 21, 2 innings and 4 earned runs with 1 strikeout and 4 walks on July 11, and 5 innings and 7 earned runs with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk on July 6. The recent trend is down, with control issues showing up in two of those three outings. Junk has a 5.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 69 innings, with 6.65 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, and 1.43 HR/9. His last three starts were 4 innings and 6 earned runs with 3 strikeouts and 3 walks on July 20, 5 innings and 1 earned run with 5 strikeouts and 4 walks on July 9, and 5 innings and 1 earned run with 3 strikeouts and no walks on May 25. His trend is also down, driven by the rough July 20 outing and a modest strikeout profile.

Teams — San Diego carries a .690 OPS and 437 runs scored, with a .230 team average. The Padres pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Miami has been slightly better at the plate overall with a .731 OPS, 461 runs, and a .250 team average. The Marlins also hold the better staff line, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, current form is a major concern, as Miami is 0-10 in its last 10 games. From a betting perspective, Miami’s stronger season-long offensive and pitching numbers are being weighed against a severe short-term slide, while San Diego brings a more neutral recent form but less efficient season-long run prevention.