Milwaukee Brewers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 1

Milwaukee arrives in Pittsburgh with the better record and a clear edge in the starting matchup, but the season series has been far less one-sided than the NL Central standings.

The Brewers are 93-57 and lead the division. Pittsburgh sits at 75-75, yet the Pirates have won five of the first nine meetings between the teams and come in 7-3 over their last 10 games.

The biggest challenge for Pittsburgh is Jacob Misiorowski.

Misiorowski sets the tone

Through 27 starts and 161.1 innings, Misiorowski has a 1.95 ERA, 2.24 FIP and 0.80 WHIP. His 13.2 strikeouts per nine and 0.80 WHIP both rank second among the qualified starters in the day’s data.

Misiorowski limits baserunners, misses bats at an elite rate and has allowed only 0.80 home runs per nine.

Pittsburgh counters with Lake Bachar, who has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through nine starts. Bachar has been effective, but Misiorowski misses more bats, walks fewer hitters and has allowed fewer home runs. Bachar is at 9.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.50 HR/9; Misiorowski is at 13.2, 2.3 and 0.80.

Pittsburgh will need its offense to make the limited opportunities against Misiorowski count.

Pittsburgh’s lineup gives the game some balance

The Pirates have enough offense to make Misiorowski work.

They average 4.79 runs per game, fifth in MLB, and their .330 on-base percentage ranks fourth. That gives Milwaukee’s starter a real test against a lineup that has consistently created traffic.

The Brewers have been even more productive. Milwaukee scores 5.19 runs per game, second in MLB, and leads the league with a .341 OBP.

One of the more unusual parts of Milwaukee’s offensive profile is its home-run total. The Brewers have hit only 146, 28th in MLB, yet still rank second in runs per game. Their run production has remained high without a top-tier home-run total, putting additional importance on Bachar’s ability to keep runners off base.

Milwaukee’s pitching depth extends beyond Misiorowski

Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.11 and 1.35.

The Pirates’ relievers strike out slightly more hitters, 9.5 per nine compared with Milwaukee’s 9.0, but the Brewers have allowed fewer runs and fewer baserunners over the season.

That could become important in a game featuring the second- and fifth-ranked scoring offenses in MLB.

Pittsburgh has made the season series competitive

The overall numbers lean toward Milwaukee, particularly on the mound. The head-to-head results have gone the other way.

Pittsburgh leads the season series 5-4 and has the better record over the last 10 games. Milwaukee has gone 41-31 on the road, while the Pirates are 38-34 at PNC Park.

For Pittsburgh, the task is straightforward: create enough traffic against Misiorowski to give its fifth-ranked offense opportunities to decide the game.