Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (2026-07-22). Eric Lauer vs Aaron Nola at Citizens Bank Park.
Starters — Lauer has a 4.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 76.2 innings, with 5.52 K/9, 3.17 BB/9, and a high 2.11 HR/9. His last three starts were steady on run prevention: 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB; 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB; and 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB. The recent trend is up, but the low strikeout rate and home run damage remain key betting concerns. Nola carries a 5.68 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 103 innings, with stronger bat-missing ability at 9.44 K/9, plus 3.06 BB/9 and 2.01 HR/9. His last three starts were 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 4 BB; 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB; and 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB. The trend is down, which suggests some recent stabilization despite the elevated season-long ERA.
Teams — Los Angeles brings the stronger offensive profile with a .771 OPS and 526 runs scored, while Philadelphia sits at a .705 OPS with 443 runs. The Dodgers also hold the better season-long pitching numbers, posting a 3.53 team ERA and 1.14 WHIP compared with the Phillies’ 4.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Recent form is not ideal for Los Angeles at 4-6 over its last 10, while Philadelphia is 5-5. From a matchup perspective, the Dodgers have the clearer edge in lineup production and overall staff efficiency, while the Phillies may lean on Nola’s higher strikeout ceiling if his recent form continues.
