Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (2026-08-12). Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy at Busch Stadium.

Starters — Wheeler brings a 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 110.1 innings with elite bat-missing ability at 10.77 K/9. His control is solid at 2.28 BB/9, though the 1.14 HR/9 is a mild risk point. His last three starts were uneven: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 5 BB; 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB; and 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. The recent form points down despite the strong full-season profile. Leahy has a 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 112.1 innings with 7.93 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, and 0.96 HR/9. His last three starts were sharp: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB; 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB. His trend is up, with cleaner command and steadier run prevention lately.

Teams — Philadelphia owns a .708 OPS and 534 runs, compared with St. Louis at a .695 OPS and 522 runs. The Phillies have been slightly better at creating offense overall, even with a .238 team average, while the Cardinals sit at .240. On the pitching side, Philadelphia has a 4.18 team ERA and 1.30 WHIP, while St. Louis has a 4.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Both clubs are 6-4 over their last 10, so recent form does not create much separation. This matchup leans toward a contrast between Philadelphia’s stronger top-end starter metrics over the full season and St. Louis getting the hotter recent starter plus a marginally better team ERA.