New York Yankees 3, Arizona Diamondbacks 5

Arizona’s attempt to stay within reach of the NL Wild Card runs into one of the toughest starting assignments on the September 19 schedule.

The Diamondbacks are 80-74 and five games behind a Wild Card position after losing three straight. New York arrives at Chase Field going the other way: the Yankees are 89-64, have won eight of their last 10 and opened this series with a 9-2 victory.

The central figure in Game 2 is Cam Schlittler. Through 31 starts and 184.2 innings, the right-hander owns a 1.95 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while striking out 11.1 hitters per nine. There is little disagreement between the surface results and the underlying numbers: Schlittler has combined run prevention, strikeouts and control over a full starter’s workload.

Brandon Pfaadt has been solid for Arizona, but the comparison is difficult. His 3.77 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are respectable, yet his 4.06 FIP trails Schlittler’s by nearly a run and a half. The largest separation comes in missed bats, with Pfaadt at 6.1 K/9 compared with Schlittler’s 11.1. Both pitchers have walked 2.1 per nine, so the difference is not about control as much as what happens once they attack the strike zone.

New York also has protection behind its starter. The Yankees’ bullpen carries a 3.07 ERA, the best mark in MLB, with a 1.20 WHIP. Arizona’s relief group has been good rather than dominant at 3.91.

The offensive difference is smaller. New York scores 4.61 runs per game to Arizona’s 4.42, but the Yankees have produced far more home-run power, hitting 211 to the Diamondbacks’ 155.

Arizona does have a 43-36 home record, and New York’s road assignment is hardly automatic. The Yankees, however, are 47-32 away from home and already have the opening game in hand.

For Arizona, the challenge is straightforward: find enough offense against Schlittler to prevent New York’s starting-pitching and bullpen advantages from controlling the game from beginning to end.