New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-08-07). Zac Thornton vs Carmen Mlodzinski at PNC Park.

Starters — Thornton has a 2.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 34.1 innings, with 6.29 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, and 0.79 HR/9. His last three starts were 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB; 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB; and 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB. The recent form points slightly up, though the most recent outing was less efficient. Mlodzinski carries a 3.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 94.1 innings, with 7.25 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, and 0.67 HR/9. His last three appearances were 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 1 BB; 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB; and 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB. The listed trend is down, but he has allowed only 1 earned run over those last 8.0 innings.

Teams — The Mets own a .692 OPS, 482 runs, a 4.09 team ERA, and a 1.30 team WHIP. They are 6-4 over their last 10, which suggests steadier recent form than their season-long offense. The Pirates have a stronger .745 OPS and 588 runs, with a 4.31 team ERA and 1.32 team WHIP. They are just 2-8 in their last 10, so bettors are weighing the better overall offensive profile against weaker recent results.