Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
New York Mets
Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.
Projected sample — season splits vs pitcher hand, not official order.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (2026-06-24). Shota Imanaga vs Sean Manaea at Citi Field.
Shota Imanaga enters this matchup with a season ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.06 over 86.2 innings across 15 starts, demonstrating a solid ability to limit baserunners. His strikeout rate of 8.72 K/9 is respectable, paired with a controlled 2.28 BB/9, although his home run rate of 1.77 HR/9 is a concern. Imanaga's recent trend ERA is up, and he has a 50% quality start percentage, indicating some inconsistency in deep outings. Sean Manaea, on the other hand, has a slightly higher season ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.34 across 54.1 innings in 2 starts, with a higher K/9 of 9.28 but also a higher BB/9 of 2.98. Manaea's home run rate of 0.99 HR/9 is better than Imanaga's, but his quality start percentage is 0%, suggesting he has struggled to go deep into games. Manaea's recent trend ERA is down, which could indicate improved form despite his limited starts.
The Cubs' offense has been more potent this season, boasting an OPS of 0.740 and scoring 375 runs, compared to the Mets' 0.670 OPS and 317 runs. Chicago's hitting metrics, including a 0.243 batting average and 0.338 on-base percentage, suggest a more consistent ability to get on base and drive in runs. On the pitching side, the Cubs have a team ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.24, allowing 115 home runs. The Mets' pitching staff has a slightly better team ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.28, with a lower home run allowed total of 80, indicating a potential advantage in run prevention. The Cubs have been inconsistent in their recent form, while the Mets have shown more wins in their last ten games.
Looking at the head-to-head history, the Mets have had a slight edge over the Cubs in recent meetings from 2025, winning four of the six contests. The total line for this game is set at 8.5 runs, which aligns with the pitching matchup featuring two left-handers who have shown some vulnerability to runs, particularly Imanaga's higher home run rate and Manaea's struggles to pitch deep. The Cubs' stronger offense could challenge the Mets' pitching, while the Mets' ability to limit home runs could be a factor against Chicago's lineup.
Alex Bregman has the most extensive history against Manaea, going 10-for-40 in 46 plate appearances with an .823 OPS. Matt Shaw and Seiya Suzuki both have strong numbers, each 2-for-4 with a 1.250 OPS. Michael Busch is 2-for-5 with a 1.400 OPS, while Nico Hoerner is 2-for-10 with a .600 OPS. Carson Kelly has recorded 3 hits in 21 at-bats across 23 plate appearances for a .550 OPS. Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitless in 1 at-bat across 2 plate appearances with a .500 OPS, and Dansby Swanson is 0-for-12 in 14 plate appearances with a .071 OPS. Pedro Ramírez has no MLB history against Manaea.
Francisco Lindor has performed well against Imanaga, going 3-for-6 in 7 plate appearances with a 1.904 OPS. Marcus Semien is 1-for-2 in 3 plate appearances with a 1.167 OPS, and Francisco Alvarez is 1-for-2 with a 2.500 OPS. Brett Baty has gone 2-for-5 with a 1.400 OPS. Mark Vientos is hitless in 5 at-bats across 5 plate appearances with a .000 OPS. Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, Eric Wagaman, and A.J. Ewing have no MLB history against Imanaga.
Takeaway: The away lineup has more batters with prior MLB history against the opposing starter, Sean Manaea, including several with extensive plate appearances.
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