Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-06-24). Bryan Woo vs Braxton Ashcraft at PNC Park.

Bryan Woo enters this matchup with a 3.94 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 89 innings pitched in 15 starts this season, demonstrating solid control with a 1.62 BB/9 and a respectable 8.9 K/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, though he has maintained a 66.7% quality start percentage and a stable alternating pattern in his performance. Braxton Ashcraft, for the Pirates, boasts a lower season ERA of 3.18 and a slightly higher WHIP of 1.10 over 90.2 innings in 15 starts, coupled with a higher K/9 of 9.63 and a 2.18 BB/9. Ashcraft's ERA also shows an upward trend, and his quality start percentage stands at 50%, indicating a slightly less consistent ability to go deep into games with strong outings compared to Woo.

Offensively, the Pirates hold an advantage with a team OPS of 0.742 and 393 runs scored, significantly outperforming the Mariners' 0.700 OPS and 329 runs. The Pirates also exhibit a higher team batting average of 0.255 compared to the Mariners' 0.232. On the pitching side, the Mariners possess a superior team ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.18, indicating a more effective overall pitching staff than the Pirates, who have a team ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.30. Both teams have allowed an identical number of home runs this season, with 77 each.

Recent head-to-head contests from July 2025 show the Mariners sweeping the Pirates in a three-game series, with all three games being low-scoring affairs, including two 1-0 victories for Seattle. The total line for this game is set at 7.5, which aligns with the historical low-scoring nature of these matchups and the relatively strong starting pitching on both sides, despite the offensive discrepancies. The Mariners' historical dominance in this specific series, particularly in limiting runs, suggests that the total line might reflect expectations of another tightly contested game.