Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (2026-06-24). Shane Drohan vs Rhett Lowder at Great American Ball Park.

Shane Drohan enters with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 47.2 innings this season, demonstrating a solid ability to limit baserunners with a 2.64 BB/9. However, his recent starts show a concerning trend with his ERA trending upwards and no quality starts recorded, including a 10.13 ERA in a 2.2-inning outing on April 8th. Rhett Lowder, with a 4.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 52.1 innings, has struggled more with walks, posting a 4.82 BB/9, but has shown better recent form with his ERA trending downwards and a 50% quality start percentage. Lowder has also demonstrated more durability, consistently pitching deeper into games with multiple 6-inning outings in his last five starts.

The Brewers' offense is stronger, boasting a .726 OPS and 401 runs scored, compared to the Reds' .695 OPS and 326 runs. Milwaukee also exhibits better plate discipline with 325 walks against 635 strikeouts, while Cincinnati has 291 walks and 739 strikeouts. On the pitching side, the Brewers hold a significant advantage with a 3.35 team ERA and 1.17 WHIP, alongside a high 9.96 K/9, indicating a strong overall pitching staff. The Reds' pitching staff has a higher 4.49 team ERA and 1.45 WHIP, suggesting more vulnerability on the mound.

The head-to-head history between these two teams in 2025 saw Milwaukee winning 8 of 13 matchups, often with varied scoring totals. The total line of 9.0 for this game suggests expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair, which aligns with Great American Ball Park's reputation as a hitter-friendly venue. Given Drohan's recent struggles and Lowder's higher season ERA, coupled with the Brewers' potent offense, reaching this total appears plausible.