Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (2026-07-05). Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson at Angel Stadium.

Suarez brings the much stronger full-season profile, working to a 2.94 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 88.2 innings with 9.34 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 in 16 starts. His recent run supports that line: over his last seven starts he has allowed 11 earned runs in 40.0 innings, and he has completed at least five innings every time while posting an 80 percent quality-start rate for the season. Johnson has a 7.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through 24.1 innings, with a modest 6.66 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, and a damaging 2.22 HR/9. The recent trend is better for Johnson than the season line suggests, with only one earned run allowed in each of his last two starts after giving up five earned runs in two of his previous three outings.

Offensively, the Angels have been slightly more productive overall, carrying a .705 OPS and 394 runs compared with Boston’s .697 OPS and 350 runs. Los Angeles also has the bigger power count with 103 homers versus 76, although that comes with more swing-and-miss, as the Angels have struck out 846 times compared with Boston’s 714. On the pitching side, Boston has the clearer edge over the full season with a 3.76 team ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while the Angels sit at 4.64 and 1.40. That gap matters here because Boston is pairing the better overall staff with the more reliable starter, while the Angels need their lineup to offset a weaker run-prevention baseline.

Recent head-to-head results lean toward Los Angeles, which won five of the last six meetings between these clubs in 2025, though several of those games were tightly scored and one reached 20 total runs. The 8.0 total sits at an interesting midpoint for this matchup: Suarez’s consistency and Boston’s stronger staff point toward run suppression, but Johnson’s elevated ERA and home-run rate leave room for volatility if Boston strings together traffic early.