Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-05). Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo at Great American Ball Park.
Bradish brings the stronger full-season profile, working to a 3.77 ERA over 93 innings with a 1.45 WHIP, 9.29 K/9, and 4.55 BB/9 across 17 starts. His recent form has been volatile but mostly effective: over his last four starts he has allowed 9 earned runs in 23.2 innings, and two of those outings were dominant road performances with 21 strikeouts combined against the Angels and Mariners. The concern is command, especially after five walks in four innings last time out, but his trend metrics still point downward on ERA with no listed blow-up rate and a stable pattern. Lodolo has a 5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 51.2 innings, 7.32 K/9, and 3.83 BB/9 in 10 starts, with less swing-and-miss impact and more damage on contact. His last two starts were scoreless, yet they covered only nine total innings, and his recent run still includes a seven-earned-run outing against the Mets; the alternating pattern and 20 percent blow-up rate fit a pitcher who has not stacked quality length.
Baltimore owns the better offensive baseline, posting a .715 OPS and 414 runs compared with Cincinnati’s .699 OPS and 369 runs, while both clubs have similar home run totals at 104 for the Orioles and 106 for the Reds. The Orioles also pair that edge with the slightly better staff numbers, carrying a 4.35 team ERA and 1.38 WHIP versus Cincinnati’s 4.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Neither lineup is especially low-strikeout, and both bullpens have 20 saves, so this matchup leans on whether the starters can limit traffic rather than on a major late-game relief gap.
The most recent head-to-head sample from 2025 was high variance and offense-heavy, with the teams combining for 11, 11, and 26 runs in a three-game set. That history lines up with a 9.5 total in this park, especially with Lodolo’s season-long run prevention issues and Cincinnati’s staff allowing 121 homers. Bradish’s stronger recent ceiling gives the matchup some under support early, but Great American Ball Park and two imperfect WHIP profiles keep the total elevated.
