New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (2026-07-05). Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez at Truist Park.
McLean brings the bigger strikeout profile into this matchup, posting a 3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.67 K/9 across 95.1 innings, though his 3.4 BB/9 leaves some traffic risk. His recent form has been volatile but productive: over his last seven starts he has allowed either zero or one earned run in four outings, but also gave up six to the Cubs and seven to the Reds, matching a 20 percent blow-up rate. Against Atlanta on June 12 he worked only four innings, allowing two earned runs with six strikeouts and four walks, which fits the overall profile of swing-and-miss stuff with occasional inefficiency.
Pérez has been steadier on the season at 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 77 innings, but he gets there with less bat-missing ability at 7.13 K/9 and a similar 3.51 BB/9. The trend line matters here: his ERA direction is listed up, and his last two starts produced seven earned runs in nine innings with seven walks against only five strikeouts. He did handle the Mets well on June 13, allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings, but his quality-start rate sits at just 20 percent, so run prevention has often come without deep outings.
The broader team comparison leans toward Atlanta on both sides of the ball. The Braves own a .723 OPS and 422 runs, clearly ahead of the Mets’ .673 OPS and 352 runs, while also showing more power with 113 homers against New York’s 101. On the mound, Atlanta again has the cleaner full-season numbers with a 3.46 team ERA and 1.21 WHIP versus the Mets’ 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and the Braves’ bullpen edge is reflected in 26 saves compared with 14 for New York. For totals bettors, that creates an interesting split between Atlanta’s stronger overall run environment and McLean’s ability to suppress damage when his command holds.
Recent head-to-head results have swung both ways, but the scoring pattern has been mixed rather than consistently high or low. In the last 13 meetings from 2025, seven games reached at least nine total runs, while six stayed under that mark, including several tighter Braves wins and a few Mets-driven outbursts. With a total of 9.0, the line sits in a reasonable middle ground: McLean’s strikeout upside can mute Atlanta for stretches, but both recent Pérez form and the Mets’ shakier team pitching keep open paths to a game that gets into the middle innings with pressure on the bullpens.
