St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (2026-07-05). Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad at Wrigley Field.
Liberatore enters with a 5.33 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 82.2 innings across 17 starts, pairing a solid 8.6 K/9 with a shakier 3.59 BB/9 and 1.85 HR/9. His recent form has been volatile: over his last four starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 16 innings, though the most recent outing was a sharp rebound with 9 strikeouts, 1 hit allowed and 1 earned run over 5 innings against Atlanta. Assad has been more efficient on the season, posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 51.2 innings, with lower swing-and-miss at 5.4 K/9 but much better control at 2.26 BB/9. His last five starts showed steadier run prevention before a short 2.2-inning, 4-earned-run outing against San Diego, so the trend is more flat than clearly rising or falling.
Offensively, Chicago has the stronger overall profile with a .749 OPS and 449 runs, compared with St. Louis at a .722 OPS and 399 runs. The Cubs also show more patience with 395 walks versus 285 for the Cardinals, which matters against a starter like Liberatore whose walk rate can create extra traffic. On the pitching side, St. Louis has the slightly better team ERA at 4.14 compared with Chicago's 4.36, but the Cubs own the better WHIP at 1.27 versus 1.33. That split suggests Chicago has been a bit more effective at limiting baserunners even while giving up more damage on contact, including 136 homers allowed.
Recent head-to-head results lean toward higher-scoring Cubs success, with Chicago winning 9 of the last 13 meetings and several games landing in lopsided offensive ranges such as 12-1, 11-3 and 11-0 from the Cubs' side. Liberatore did throw 5.1 scoreless innings against Chicago on May 31, which adds some counterweight to his broader inconsistency, while Assad's low-WHIP style fits a game script that can stay controlled if he avoids the early exit that showed up last time out. With no listed total available, the matchup points to a tension between two starters coming off very different most recent outings and two offenses that can capitalize on home-run issues.
