San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (2026-07-05). JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.

Sears comes in with a rough early sample over 10.1 innings, posting a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with 7.84 strikeouts per nine against 4.35 walks per nine. The left-hander has already shown volatility, with a 50 percent blow-up rate and no quality starts through two outings; his last two starts swung from 5.2 innings and two earned runs against Atlanta to 4.2 innings and six earned runs against the Cubs. Sheehan has the larger body of work at 72.2 innings, carrying a 5.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, but the underlying shape is stronger with 10.03 K per nine and 2.72 BB per nine. His recent form has been mixed rather than collapsing, and he just faced San Diego on June 28, allowing one run in five innings with five strikeouts after a six-run stumble against Baltimore.

The offensive gap between these clubs is significant on the season. San Diego owns a .673 OPS and 343 runs with a .224 team average, while Los Angeles sits at a .791 OPS and 481 runs with a .265 average and .348 OBP, giving the Dodgers a much deeper run-creation profile. The pitching comparison also leans toward the home side in aggregate support, with the Padres at a 4.24 team ERA and 1.35 WHIP versus the Dodgers at 3.47 and 1.12. Both teams have allowed 96 homers, but Los Angeles misses more bats overall at 9.08 K per nine compared with San Diego’s 8.32.

Recent head-to-head results show the Dodgers taking 9 of the last 13 meetings, although several of those games stayed competitive and a few landed in lower-scoring ranges such as 3-2, 4-3, and 2-1 type finals. That said, there have also been multiple higher-scoring meetings, including 8-7, 8-6, and 8-2, which fits a 9.5 total when one starter has a very small, unstable sample and the other has swing-and-miss stuff but an elevated season ERA. Sheehan’s fresh success against San Diego adds some under support on his side of the matchup, while Sears’ home-run and traffic issues keep the over in play.