Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (2026-07-04). Sonny Gray vs Sam Aldegheri at Angel Stadium.
Gray brings the much stronger profile into this matchup, posting a 2.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 83.2 innings with 8.07 K/9 against 2.26 BB/9 in 15 starts. His recent run has been especially sharp, with 2 earned runs allowed over his last 14.1 innings and dominant strikeout totals of 9 and 11 in his last two outings, while his quality-start rate sits at 100 percent and his trend ERA is moving down. Aldegheri has worked only 29.2 innings over five starts and owns a 4.85 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, 6.07 K/9, and 3.94 BB/9. His last four starts show the volatility bettors watch for, as he followed two rough outings totaling 11 earned runs in 7.2 innings with a steadier five-inning, one-run effort last time out, but he still has no quality starts this season.
At the team level, the Angels have been slightly better offensively by OPS, .707 to Boston’s .696, and they have also scored more runs, 393 to 342, with a clear edge in power at 102 homers versus 74. Boston’s lineup has been more contact-oriented in relative terms, but the Red Sox still carry only a .244 average and .311 OBP, so this is not an offense that has consistently separated from opponents. The larger team edge for Boston is on the mound, where the Red Sox own a 3.79 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared with the Angels’ 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Los Angeles does miss bats at a solid 9.04 K/9, but the run prevention and traffic allowed have both been materially worse.
Recent head-to-head results lean toward the Angels, who won five of the last six meetings between these clubs in 2025, though several of those games were tightly contested and the scoring mix was balanced. The total of 8.5 sits in an interesting middle range because Gray’s current form points toward run suppression, while Aldegheri’s WHIP, walk rate, and lack of deep starts can still create enough bullpen exposure to keep the number live. Four of the last six meetings reached at least nine total runs, so the matchup history has not been purely low scoring despite Gray’s stronger starting profile here.
