Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-04). Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene at Great American Ball Park.
Young brings the more complete current profile into this matchup, posting a 3.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 72.1 innings with 7.09 strikeouts per nine and 3.36 walks per nine across 13 starts. His recent run has been steady rather than dominant, which fits his flat trend indicator and 60 percent quality-start rate: over his last seven outings he has allowed 11 earned runs in 42.2 innings, with three starts of one run or fewer and no true blowups. The last three starts show both the appeal and the risk, as he has mixed 15 strikeouts in 16 innings with eight walks, but he has still kept the damage to six earned runs total. Greene is harder to frame analytically here because no season line or recent-start data is available in the feed, leaving bettors with less statistical certainty on the home starter than usual.
At the team level, Baltimore has been the slightly better offensive club, carrying a .714 OPS to Cincinnati’s .697 while also holding the edge in runs scored, 406 to 364. The Orioles are also a bit more efficient at getting on base, with a .318 OBP versus .309, even though the Reds have hit more home runs, 106 to 103. On the mound, neither staff has been especially clean over the full season, but Baltimore again has the better baseline with a 4.34 team ERA and 1.37 WHIP compared with Cincinnati’s 4.56 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The Reds’ pitching staff has also been more vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 120 homers against 99 for the Orioles, which matters in this park.
The recent head-to-head sample from April 2025 was volatile and offense-heavy, with totals of 11, 14, and 26 runs in the three meetings. That history lines up naturally with a Great American Ball Park environment and helps explain why this game is dealing at 9.5, even with Young’s solid individual numbers. The total is essentially balancing one proven starter profile on the Baltimore side against incomplete data on Greene and two bullpens attached to staffs with ERAs north of 4.30.
