St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (2026-07-04). Kyle Leahy vs Shota Imanaga at Wrigley Field.
Leahy enters with a 4.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 81.1 innings, pairing a modest 7.41 K/9 with a 3.43 BB/9. The recent trend is encouraging: across his last four starts he has allowed only 8 earned runs in 22.1 innings, and in his last two outings he gave up just 1 total earned run over 11.1 innings against Miami and Arizona. He has not shown a blow-up profile in the current metrics, but the WHIP remains a concern against patient lineups.
Imanaga has logged 98.1 innings with a 4.30 ERA and a much sharper 1.08 WHIP, along with an 8.42 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9. His profile is cleaner in terms of traffic control, though the home run rate at 1.83 per nine has kept his ERA elevated, and his quality-start rate sits at only 20 percent. Over his last four starts he has alternated stronger and weaker outings, allowing 7 earned runs in 22.1 innings, and he was hit for 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings by St. Louis in his May 29 meeting with them.
Offensively, Chicago has the stronger full-season production with a .752 OPS and 449 runs, compared with St. Louis at a .722 OPS and 396 runs. The Cubs also show more on-base pressure with a .339 OBP and 391 walks, while the Cardinals have been more middle-of-the-pack in both patience and slugging at .325 OBP and .397 SLG. On the pitching side, St. Louis owns the slightly better team ERA at 4.19, but Chicago has the better WHIP at 1.27 versus 1.34; that split suggests the Cardinals have been a bit better at run prevention overall, while the Cubs have done a better job limiting baserunners despite allowing 135 homers.
Recent head-to-head results lean toward higher-variance scoring, with the Cubs winning 8 of the last 13 meetings and several games landing in lopsided territory, including scores of 12-1, 11-3, 11-0, and 8-0 from Chicago’s side. That history fits a matchup where one starter, Leahy, has improved lately but still carries a 1.48 WHIP, while Imanaga’s low WHIP is offset by a high home-run rate and a recent rough outing against this same Cardinals lineup. With no listed total available, the market context is incomplete, but the underlying numbers point to a game shaped heavily by whether Imanaga can suppress damage on contact and whether Leahy can navigate Chicago’s walk-driven offense.
