Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (2026-07-04). Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly at Chase Field.
Woodruff brings the sharper profile by a wide margin, carrying a 2.59 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 41.2 innings through eight starts with 8.86 K/9 against just 1.94 BB/9. His recent form is especially strong: across his last two outings he has allowed no runs over 11.2 innings with 16 strikeouts, three total baserunners allowed by hit, and the underlying trend points down on ERA with no blow-up starts this season. Kelly has logged more volume at 81.2 innings, but the run prevention has been far less stable, with a 5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.18 K/9, and 3.64 BB/9 across 14 starts. His last three starts produced 14 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and the combination of a 40 percent blow-up rate and 1.98 HR/9 keeps pressure on Arizona’s bullpen.
Milwaukee has the more reliable team baseline on both sides of the ball. The Brewers enter with a .734 OPS and 443 runs, compared with Arizona’s .692 OPS and 371 runs, and Milwaukee’s stronger on-base profile at .338 versus .308 is notable against a starter who has struggled with traffic. On the mound, the Brewers also own the better staff marks, posting a 3.35 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 9.89 K/9, while the Diamondbacks sit at 4.31 and 1.29 with a much lower 6.92 K/9. Arizona has allowed 107 home runs as a staff versus 83 for Milwaukee, which matters in a park that can reward elevated contact.
The recent head-to-head sample was competitive but leaned slightly toward Arizona, with the Diamondbacks taking four of the last seven meetings. Those games were mixed from a totals perspective, with several one-run results but also multiple games reaching nine or more runs, so the 9.5 line sits at an interesting intersection between Woodruff’s current run suppression and Kelly’s vulnerability to crooked innings. If Woodruff controls the game early, the total asks Arizona’s offense to be more efficient than its season numbers suggest; if Kelly’s home run and WHIP issues show up again, Milwaukee can do a lot of the scoring itself.
