San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (2026-07-04). Griffin Canning vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
The starting pitching comparison is stark on the season. Canning has worked 47 innings across nine starts with a 7.09 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 8.81 K/9, and a troubling 5.36 BB/9, and he has not produced a quality start yet. His recent run has been uneven in exactly the way bettors dislike, alternating between damage-control outings and blowups, including four earned runs in only 0.2 innings against Atlanta before a modest 4.1-inning, two-earned-run start at Chicago. Yamamoto has been one of the steadier arms in the league, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 97.2 innings with 8.29 K/9 against just 1.75 BB/9. His last seven starts underline the stability: six innings or more in six of them, one earned run or fewer in five, and no blowups at all, including a six-inning, two-run win over San Diego on June 27.
The broader team profile also leans heavily toward Los Angeles in run creation and run prevention. San Diego enters with a .676 OPS, .225 average, and 343 runs, while the Dodgers are at a .793 OPS, .266 average, and 478 runs, with clear edges in power, on-base skill, and walk rate. On the mound, the Padres’ staff has a 4.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP compared with 3.51 and 1.13 for the Dodgers, so this matchup pairs the weaker offense and weaker overall pitching staff against the stronger club in both categories. Even if San Diego’s bullpen has converted 25 saves, the path to that group looks less secure when Canning’s command has been this inconsistent.
Recent head-to-head results show Los Angeles winning 9 of the last 13 meetings, though several games stayed competitive and a few landed in lower-scoring ranges such as 3-2, 4-3, and 2-1. That history makes the 8.5 total interesting because the game sets up with one dominant starter and one volatile one: Yamamoto can suppress scoring on his side, but Canning’s elevated ERA, WHIP, and walk rate keep open the possibility of the Dodgers doing most of the damage themselves. Yamamoto’s two starts against San Diego this year also matter in total discussions, as he has allowed just three earned runs across 13 innings versus this lineup.
