INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
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FinalFinal lineupsNL East

Philadelphia Phillies 2, Atlanta Braves 6

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

8:00 PM ET · Truist ParkGame-day snapshot Oct 3, 2:00 AM ETFinal lineups lockedCurrent 2026 season stats — updated Oct 12, 5:00 AM ET
T-Score50
Philadelphia Phillies
88–74 · 2nd NL East · T-Score 50
2
2–6
FINAL · 9 innings
Atlanta Braves
94–68 · 1st NL East · T-Score 55
6
T-Score55
FINAL · 9 innings
Pitching recap
PitcherTeamRoleIPHERBBKP
Aaron NolaPHI
StarterLoss
1.2232138
Ray KerrATL
Starter
3.1101247
Grant HolmesATL
ReliefWin
2.0211128
Scoring by inning
123456789RHE
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies000001010260
ATLAtlanta Braves300200100660
Top hitters
Michael Harris II1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI
Ozzie Albies1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 BB
Matt Olson1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 BB
Alec Bohm1-for-4 · 1 RBI
Trea Turner0-for-3 · 1 RBI

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherBravesKerr holds a modest edge in P-Score and WHIP, while the ERA gap is small.
Offense vs handBravesAtlanta owns a .730 OPS vs RHP, 11th in MLB; Philadelphia ranks 16th vs LHP.
BullpenBravesAtlanta owns a 3.70 bullpen ERA this season, compared with Philadelphia's 4.57.
Recent formBravesAtlanta has been the better recent team, at 5–5 over the last 10.
Plate disciplinePhilliesPhiladelphia has drawn 529 walks this season, 64 more than Atlanta.

Pregame contextStarting pitchers

PHI
Aaron Nola RHP
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.67
147th
WHIP
1.35
132nd
K/9
9.09
65th
BB/9
3.03
105th
P-Score53i
FIP
–
HR/9
1.90
209th
OPS/R
–
IP
175.1
Last 5 starts
ERA
2.30
QUALITY
START %
60%
(3 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
ATL
Ray Kerr LHP
Ray Kerr
Atlanta Braves
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
1.47
WHIP
0.60
K/9
5.40
BB/9
0.98
FIP
–
HR/9
0.98
OPS/R
–
IP
18.1
Last 5 starts
QUALITY
START %
0%
(0 of 5)
DAYS
REST
6
How the starters differ
·Nola strikes out 3.7 more batters per nine innings.
·Kerr allows fewer baserunners, with a 0.60 WHIP compared with 1.35.
·Kerr enters with a 1.47 ERA compared with Nola's 4.67.
·Kerr allows the lower home-run rate: 0.98 vs 1.90 per nine.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Nola arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Knuckle Curve33%78.4
Four-seam24%92.3
Sinker18%91.6
Changeup16%85.6
Cutter8%86.2
Slider1%83.2
Kerr arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam36%94.9
Curveball31%81.1
Sinker23%94.6
Slow Curve7%80.3
Cutter4%90.2

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Phillies vs LHP (Ray Kerr)
16th
in MLB
0.705OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Braves vs RHP (Aaron Nola)
11th
in MLB
0.730OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineup strength vs today's starter

Weighted by batting-order spot. Season rates are regressed toward league average before they enter the model.

Updated Oct 1, 5:00 PM ET
PHIPHI
.732
−12 ptsOPS edge
ATLATL
.744

Even matchup

Full lineup comparison

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Philadelphia PhilliesOfficial lineupvs LHP Ray Kerr
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs LHPVs Kerr (BvP)
1Trea TurnerRSS54.67519.607No MLB historyNo history
2Kyle SchwarberLDH83.85745.8961-for-4Very small sample
3Bryce HarperL1B78.86529.6570-for-1Very small sample
4Alec BohmR3B64.69815.8160-for-3Very small sample
5Bryson StottL2B64.73510.7380-for-2Very small sample
6Bryan De La CruzRRF—.7622.6230-for-1Very small sample
7Edmundo SosaRLF51.7129.8351-for-1Very small sample
8J.T. RealmutoRC49.61411.5620-for-2Very small sample
9Justin CrawfordLCF41.6623.6030-for-1Very small sample
1Trea Turner SS · R.242 / .675 · 19 HRvs hand .607 · No MLB history · No history54H-Score2Kyle Schwarber DH · L.232 / .857 · 45 HRvs hand .896 · 1-for-4 · Very small sample83H-Score3Bryce Harper 1B · L.269 / .865 · 29 HRvs hand .657 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample78H-Score4Alec Bohm 3B · R.249 / .698 · 15 HRvs hand .816 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample64H-Score5Bryson Stott 2B · L.256 / .735 · 10 HRvs hand .738 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample64H-Score6Bryan De La Cruz RF · R.280 / .762 · 2 HRvs hand .623 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample—H-Score7Edmundo Sosa LF · R.247 / .712 · 9 HRvs hand .835 · 1-for-1 · Very small sample51H-Score8J.T. Realmuto C · R.205 / .614 · 11 HRvs hand .562 · 0-for-2 · Very small sample49H-Score9Justin Crawford CF · L.264 / .662 · 3 HRvs hand .603 · 0-for-1 · Very small sample41H-Score
Atlanta BravesOfficial lineupvs RHP Aaron Nola
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Nola (BvP)
1Drake BaldwinLC79.81725.8881-for-3Very small sample
2Ronald Acuña Jr.RRF73.79620.8173-for-6Very small sample
3Matt OlsonL1B81.82341.8239-for-35Limited history
4Michael Harris IILCF75.81226.8307-for-29Limited history
5Mauricio DubónRLF55.72012.7431-for-9Very small sample
6Mike YastrzemskiLLF59.68912.6971-for-3Very small sample
7Austin RileyR3B59.65419.6512-for-8Very small sample
8Ozzie AlbiesS2B53.68522.6570-for-3Very small sample
9Dominic SmithLDH49.6949.73511-for-41Limited history
1Drake Baldwin C · L.284 / .817 · 25 HRvs hand .888 · 1-for-3 · Very small sample79H-Score2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF · R.255 / .796 · 20 HRvs hand .817 · 3-for-6 · Very small sample73H-Score3Matt Olson 1B · L.251 / .823 · 41 HRvs hand .823 · 9-for-35 · Limited history81H-Score4Michael Harris II CF · L.294 / .812 · 26 HRvs hand .830 · 7-for-29 · Limited history75H-Score5Mauricio Dubón LF · R.276 / .720 · 12 HRvs hand .743 · 1-for-9 · Very small sample55H-Score6Mike Yastrzemski LF · L.224 / .689 · 12 HRvs hand .697 · 1-for-3 · Very small sample59H-Score7Austin Riley 3B · R.219 / .654 · 19 HRvs hand .651 · 2-for-8 · Very small sample59H-Score8Ozzie Albies 2B · S.237 / .685 · 22 HRvs hand .657 · 0-for-3 · Very small sample53H-Score9Dominic Smith DH · L.253 / .694 · 9 HRvs hand .735 · 11-for-41 · Limited history49H-Score

Team comparison

OffensePHIPHI·ATLATL
AVG.240 21st.246 12th
OPS.707 22nd.718 17th
Home runs182 17th204 9th
Runs713 19th742 8th
OBP.312 23rd.309 28th
SLG.395 24th.409 7th
PitchingPHIPHI·ATLATL
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.04vs3.63
PHIATL
WHIP1.29vs1.24
PHIATL
K/99.9vs8.4
PHIATL
HR Allowed191vs185
PHIATL
BullpenPHIPHI·ATLATL
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA4.57vs3.70
no league rank
Bullpen WHIP1.37vs1.23
no league rank
Saves42vs49
PHIATL
ResultsPHIPHI·ATLATL
+30917th
Run differential
+33811th
88–74 Record94–68
4–6 Last 105–5
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Phillies (4–6)
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
Atlanta Braves (5–5)
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
8—5
13 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Phillies?+
Aaron Nola (4.67 ERA, 7–12) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Braves?+
Ray Kerr (1.47 ERA, 0–0) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
8:00 PM ET at Truist Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Phillies and Braves performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Braves 5–8 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
P-Score is available for one starter only.