Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
↓ ERA trending down lately
No prior plate appearances vs this starter in our data.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres (2026-08-10). Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize at Petco Park.
Starters — Henderson has a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 50.0 innings, with 11.16 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 1.26 HR/9. His last three starts: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB; 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB. The strikeout rate and control stand out, and his recent form points to a favorable trend. Mize carries a 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 90.0 innings, with 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9. His last three starts: 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 1 K, 3 BB; 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB; 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB. The overall profile is solid, especially in limiting home runs, but the most recent outing introduces some short-term volatility.
Teams — Milwaukee owns a .735 OPS, 585 runs, a .253 average, and a staff 3.47 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Brewers are also 7-3 in their last 10, backing up the stronger season-long offensive and pitching indicators. San Diego has a .698 OPS, 504 runs, a .237 average, and a 4.16 team ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. The Padres are also 7-3 over their last 10, so recent form is positive, but their full-season run creation and run prevention metrics trail Milwaukee’s.
Milwaukee has several hitters with at least some history against Casey Mize, led by Christian Yelich, who is 2-for-2 in 3 PA with a 1.667 OPS, and Brice Turang, who is 2-for-3 in 6 PA with a .667 average and 1.500 OPS. Jackson Chourio is 1-for-2 with a .500 average and 1.000 OPS, and David Hamilton is also 1-for-2 with a .500 average and 1.000 OPS. William Contreras has gone 1-for-6 with a .167 average and .334 OPS, while Jake Bauers is hitless at 0-for-3 with a .000 OPS, Andrew Vaughn is 0-for-5 in 6 PA with a .167 OPS, and Garrett Mitchell is 0-for-2 in 3 PA with a .333 OPS. Luis Lara has no MLB history vs Mize.
San Diego’s lineup has no MLB history against Logan Henderson. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Ty France, Jackson Merrill, Luis Rengifo, Gavin Sheets, Freddy Fermin, and Sung-Mun Song have not previously faced him in the majors.
The clear familiarity edge goes to Milwaukee, which brings multiple hitters with prior looks at Mize and a few strong small-sample results. San Diego is seeing Henderson for the first time across the board.
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