Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Miami Marlins at New York Mets (2026-07-30). Eury Pérez vs Nolan McLean at Citi Field.

Starters — Eury Pérez enters with a 3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 98.2 innings, backed by 9.67 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, and 1.19 HR/9. His last three starts were solid: 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB; 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB. The recent form points up, with two starts of two earned runs or fewer in that span. Nolan McLean has a 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 119.1 innings, with stronger bat-missing numbers at 10.71 K/9, plus 3.24 BB/9 and 0.83 HR/9. His last three starts were 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K, 2 BB; and 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB. His trend is also up, and the combination of strikeouts and lower home-run rate stands out.

Teams — Miami brings the better offensive profile with a .734 OPS, .251 average, and 481 runs scored. The Marlins also have the slightly better season-long pitching line at a 4.09 team ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but they come in on a 3-7 run over their last 10 games. New York has a .688 OPS, .234 average, and 449 runs, so the lineup has been less productive overall. The Mets’ staff sits at a 4.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, very close to Miami’s numbers, and they are 5-5 in their last 10. For bettors, this sets up as Miami having the stronger full-season offense, while New York counters with the hotter recent starter and comparable team pitching.