St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (2026-06-09). Dustin May vs Freddy Peralta at Citi Field.

Dustin May enters this contest for the Cardinals with a season ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.29 across 66.2 innings, featuring an 8.1 K/9 and 2.57 BB/9. His metrics indicate a trend ERA that is currently "up," coupled with a concerning 33.3% blow-up rate, suggesting a propensity for high-run outings. However, May has demonstrated a recent turnaround, allowing just one earned run in each of his last three starts, covering 17.1 innings, after two particularly rough starts earlier in the season. For the New York Mets, Freddy Peralta holds a stronger season ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.32 over 72 innings. Peralta boasts a higher K/9 of 9.25 but also a higher BB/9 at 3.75. While his blow-up rate stands at an impressive 0%, indicating consistent avoidance of catastrophic performances, his quality start percentage is a low 16.7%, suggesting he rarely pitches deep into games. Peralta's trend ERA is also "up," and he allowed one earned run over 5.1 innings in his recent encounter with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals' offense presents a slight edge, posting a team OPS of 0.709 and scoring 278 runs this season, compared to the Mets' OPS of 0.661 and 265 runs. On the pitching side, the Mets hold a distinct advantage, with a team ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.28, supported by a strong 9.19 K/9. St. Louis's pitching staff maintains a 4.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Both teams have displayed mixed recent form, with the Cardinals recording five wins and five losses in their last ten games, while the Mets have a slightly better six wins and four losses over the same period.

Recent head-to-head matchups from 2025 show the Mets having a clear advantage, winning five of the last seven contests against the Cardinals. These games featured a range of scores, with several being lower-scoring affairs, though the last two meetings saw higher totals of 6-5 and 5-6. The current total line of 7.5 reflects expectations for a moderately scoring game. This line aligns with Peralta's tendency to limit blow-ups despite not pitching deep, potentially keeping early runs in check, and his recent success against the Cardinals where he allowed just one earned run. May's recent improved form could also contribute to a tighter score, although the Mets lineup has historically shown an ability to make contact against him, accumulating 15 hits in past encounters, and his high blow-up rate remains a factor.